US Presidential Election Predictor Who Accurately Forecasted 9 Times Predicts Winner

Presidential Predictor Professor Richtman "Harris Leading"
"Advantage in 8 out of 13 Prediction Models"

A U.S. historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of 10 U.S. presidential elections since 1984 has forecasted the election of Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming November election, according to foreign media including USA Today on the 29th. Yonhap News Agency cited foreign media on the same day, reporting that Alan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University known as the "election prophet," made this prediction based on a presidential election prediction model he developed.

Former President Donald Trump (left) and Vice President Kamala Harris (right) [Photo by Yonhap News]

Professor Lichtman has historically analyzed U.S. presidential elections since 1860 and developed the "13 Keys to the Presidency" model to predict election outcomes. The 13 keys in this model are: ① the incumbent party's standing ② primary election ③ whether the candidate is an incumbent ④ third-party candidates ⑤ short-term economic performance ⑥ long-term economic performance ⑦ policy changes ⑧ social unrest ⑨ scandals ⑩ foreign or military failures ⑪ foreign or military successes ⑫ charisma of the incumbent ⑬ charisma of the challenger.

If the incumbent party holds an advantage in 8 or more of these keys, it is interpreted as a likely victory in the presidential election. Conversely, if the incumbent party is disadvantaged in 6 or more keys, it is judged as likely to lose.

Vice President Harris was found to have an advantage in 8 of the 13 variables, predicting her victory. It was noted as favorable that the Democratic Party has no other candidate capable of challenging Harris, and that she is effectively confirmed as the presidential candidate. Historically, the absence of a third-party candidate who would disadvantage the incumbent party was also analyzed as a favorable variable. Currently, there is an independent presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. However, Professor Lichtman stated that for Kennedy's presence to have an impact, his polling support would need to exceed 10% just before November, a possibility he views as low.

Both short-term and long-term economic performances were also analyzed as variables favorable to Vice President Harris. So far, no recession has been declared this year, and the U.S. second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate was 2.8%, surpassing the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.

Additionally, President Joe Biden's policies being fundamentally different from the previous Trump administration, and the current absence of social unrest aside from sporadic protests, were also evaluated as favorable variables for Vice President Harris.

On the other hand, some variables were predicted to work against her. These include the Democratic Party not gaining more House seats in the 2022 midterm elections compared to the 2018 midterms, Harris not being the incumbent president seeking re-election, and unresolved conflicts such as the Gaza Strip war and the Ukraine war, all judged as unfavorable variables for the Democratic Party.

Furthermore, similar to President Franklin Roosevelt, the variable that the incumbent party's presidential candidate must be appealing to voters beyond party lines was analyzed as unfavorable for Vice President Harris.

Professor Lichtman stated that he plans to review this preliminary analysis and announce the official analysis results next month.

Since predicting President Ronald Reagan's re-election in the 1984 election, Professor Lichtman has accurately forecasted the winners in most elections to date. The only election where his prediction missed was the 2000 election, which involved George W. Bush and Al Gore and led to recount controversies. He accurately predicted the election outcomes of George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and President Biden. Notably, in the 2016 election, while many polls forecasted the victory of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, he predicted the election of former President Trump.