[MarketING] MS and Apple Earnings Announced... KOSPI Expected Between 2630 and 2780

This week (July 29 to August 2), the domestic stock market is expected to determine whether it will rebound based on earnings announcements from U.S. big tech companies such as Microsoft (MS) and Apple, as well as the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Securities firms have forecasted the KOSPI band for this week to be between 2630 and 2780 points.

On the 25th, as the US stock market experienced its largest drop since 2022 due to concerns over Big Tech earnings, the KOSPI index opened at 2,719.74, down 38.97 points (-1.41%) from the previous trading day (2,758.71). The index is displayed on the electronic board in the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jo Yongjun jun21@

According to the Korea Exchange on the 28th, last week the KOSPI index closed at 2731.90, down 2.27% from the previous week (2795.46). The KOSPI showed a weak trend early in the week due to uncertainties surrounding the presidential election and declines in the U.S. stock market, and on the 25th, it fell 1.74% following a sharp drop in U.S. tech stocks. During this period, individual and institutional investors net bought 635.8 billion KRW and 233.7 billion KRW respectively, while foreign investors net sold 826.2 billion KRW.

This week, earnings announcements from U.S. big tech companies and the results of the July FOMC meeting are expected to influence the domestic stock market. Starting with MS on the 30th (local time), Meta will report on the 31st, followed by Apple, Amazon, and Intel on the 1st of next month.

Jinhyuk Kang, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "The impact of the U.S. presidential election, which started earlier than usual, has dampened risk asset appetite, and as earnings expectations have risen, profit-taking selling has appeared even with earnings surprises. If the big tech earnings announcements this week do not exceed expectations, further declines are possible."

The July FOMC meeting on the 31st is also a key variable to watch. Junho Hwang, a researcher at Sangsangin Securities, said, "Disinflation in the U.S., expanding signals of deterioration in qualitative employment indicators, and the possibility of contraction in real economy indicators suggest a smooth FOMC meeting. This could act as a positive factor for financial markets."

NH Investment & Securities has suggested a KOSPI band of 2630 to 2780 points for this week. Younghwan Kim, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "The possibility that the Federal Reserve's rate cut calls will be perceived as a normalization leading to rate cuts has increased. Signals from the Fed that rate cuts will begin soon are emerging as factors that could drive stock market gains."