Why Does the Democratic Party's Approval Rating Lag Behind the People Power Party's Despite Their Crushing Defeat in the General Election? [Polpol News]

People Power Party Leads Democratic Party Beyond Margin of Error
Fatigue Over Democratic Party's Political Management
Convention Effect Reflected in People Power Party's Leadership Election
Possibility of Conservative Base Oversampling

The public opinion landscape is rapidly changing 100 days after the general election. The support rate for the People Power Party, which suffered a crushing defeat in the general election, is now ahead of the Democratic Party, which achieved an unprecedented landslide victory, beyond the margin of error. Why has this happened?

According to Gallup's own public opinion survey released on the 26th (conducted from the 22nd to the 25th via wireless phone interviews with 1,001 people aged 18 and over), party support was recorded as 35% for the People Power Party, 27% for the Democratic Party, 9% for the Innovation Party for Justice, and 23% for the non-affiliated group. While the support rates for the People Power Party and the Democratic Party remained unchanged from the previous week, the gap between the two parties was 8 percentage points, exceeding the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points), with the People Power Party leading.

In the NBS survey conducted by polling firms Embrain Public, K-stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (from the 22nd to the 24th, via mobile phone virtual number telephone interviews with 1,005 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide), the People Power Party's support rate rose by 6 percentage points compared to two weeks ago to 36%, while the Democratic Party's support rate fell by 2 percentage points to 25%. The gap between the two parties was 11 percentage points, exceeding the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points).

The trend is similar in the survey released on the 22nd by Realmeter (commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper, conducted with 1,003 voters aged 18 and over nationwide via wireless (97%) and wired (3%) automated response system (ARS) telephone survey). The People Power Party's support rate increased by 4.1 percentage points to 42.1%, while the Democratic Party's support rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 33.2%. Again, the People Power Party leads beyond the margin of error.

Opposition party lawmakers, including those from the Democratic Party of Korea and the Joguk Innovation Party, came out onto the Rotunda Hall stairs on the 25th to condemn the People Power Party after the 'Special Prosecutor Act for Chae Sang-byeong' was rejected again in the National Assembly. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Before and after the general election, party support rates varied depending on the survey method, such as telephone interviewer surveys or ARS, but recently, regardless of the survey method, the People Power Party has been leading the Democratic Party in party support rates. The support rates for the People Power Party and the Democratic Party, which showed a close race within the margin of error after the general election, are now tilting in favor of the People Power Party. How should this phenomenon be interpreted?

Democratic Party’s impeachment offensive after the general election leads to growing fatigue

Polling experts cite the Democratic Party's limited ability to respond to the political situation and the effect of the People Power Party's party convention as reasons.

Hong Hyung-sik, director of Hangil Research, diagnosed, "Although there are slight differences among polling companies, the trend of the People Power Party leading compared to the Democratic Party is clear." He pointed out, "The People Power Party has seen changes such as former leader Lee Jun-seok (currently a member of the Reform Party) and leader Han Dong-hoon, while the Democratic Party is still stuck with the 586 generation politics." He added, "The Democratic Party received support in the general election, but it is using that power only as a tool for power struggles, not for the nation or the people. For example, impeachment is something the people initiate, but the Democratic Party is trying to impeach with their seats even though the people have not moved yet."

Lee Eun-young, director of Human Data, said, "The Democratic Party lacks a consistent strategy in the National Assembly and is wavering, so there is a sense of fatigue because nothing is progressing and things remain stagnant." She also analyzed, "Unlike the People Power Party, the Democratic Party's party convention does not feel like selecting the next generation of talent, which also plays a role."

President Yoon’s approval rating recovery and People Power Party convention effect

President Yoon Suk-yeol’s recovery in government approval ratings and the People Power Party’s party convention effect are also mentioned. Diplomatic achievements in the U.S. and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power being selected as the preferred negotiator for the Czech nuclear power plant have raised President Yoon’s approval ratings, especially among conservatives.

Han Dong-hoon, the newly appointed leader of the People Power Party, is waving the party flag at the 4th People Power Party Convention held on the 23rd at KINTEX in Goyang-si, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

In addition, the fiercely contested People Power Party convention attracted public attention, and the election of leader Han Dong-hoon, who is regarded as a potential next presidential candidate, is analyzed to have driven the ruling party’s rise in support. This is a kind of convention effect.

However, there is also a possibility that conservative opinions were overrepresented. Since the convention took place during this period, conservatives may have been more actively responding to surveys, resulting in more conservative opinions being reflected. In the Realmeter survey, those who identified themselves as conservatives were 27.7% in the first week of July and 28.8% in the second week of July. In contrast, the proportion of conservatives increased to 31.2% in the third week of July.

A similar trend was confirmed in the biweekly NBS survey. The proportion of respondents identifying as conservatives was 29.9% in the fourth week of June and 27.7% in the second week of July. However, it increased to 31.9% in the fourth week of July. Kim Bong-shin, director of Metavoice, explained, "Due to the influence of the party convention, the People Power Party supporters may have responded more actively, which could have affected the survey results."