[Viewpoint] Even Genes Have Reached Their Limit: The Olympics Will Reveal Korea's Challenging Future

Lowest Olympic Performance in 40 Years Expected
Sharp Decline in Athletes in Their 20s
Even Height, Once an Advantage, Is Now Decreasing
First Olympics to Truly Feel the Impact of Population Decline

The opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics will be held on the 27th. South Korea is highly likely to achieve its lowest performance in 40 years this time. Korea rose to the ranks of Olympic powerhouses in the 1980s. At the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, it ranked 10th in the world with 6 gold medals. At the 1988 Seoul Olympics, the ranking was 4th (12 gold medals). The achievement was so remarkable that there were talks it was abnormally high due to the advantage of being the host country. Looking at the results since then, the criticism that the good performance was simply due to the home advantage seems unfounded. In 1992 Barcelona, South Korea ranked 7th (12 gold medals).

The subsequent results were also good. In 1996 Atlanta, 10th place (7 gold medals); in 2000 Sydney, 12th place (8 gold medals); in 2004 Athens, 9th place (9 gold medals); in 2008 Beijing, 7th place (13 gold medals); in 2012 London, 5th place (13 gold medals); and in 2016 Rio de Janeiro, 8th place (9 gold medals). In the most recent 2021 Tokyo Olympics, the performance slightly fell short of expectations, ranking 16th with 6 gold medals.

The goal for gold medals this time is said to be at least 5. Usually, goals are set high. This implies a high possibility of not achieving 5 gold medals. Many attribute the decline in performance to poor results in combat sports. It is said that the so-called "hungry spirit" has disappeared. Looking at the situation, this analysis seems plausible. Sports like Taekwondo, boxing, judo, and wrestling, which divide competitors by weight class to overpower opponents, were once Korea's medal fields. However, fewer people are willing to endure the hardships and pain of combat sports, leading to a decline in performance. But the poor results in combat sports are more a symptom than a cause.

The root cause of the decline in Olympic competitiveness is the decrease in birth rate. As of July this year, the population of people in their 20s in South Korea is 6.07 million. In 2008, when the Beijing Olympics were held, it was 7.26 million. Naturally, athletes selected from a larger population tend to achieve better results. The year with the highest number of births in Korea was 1971. Around this time, the Korean population increased the most. There were 1,024,773 births in 1971. In 1970, there were 1,006,645 births, and in 1972, 952,780 births. This is why the Olympics in 1988, when those born around 1970 entered their late teens, and in 1992, 1996, and 2000, when they were in their 20s, showed good results. However, the number of newborns has decreased every year. Last year, the number of newborns was only 230,000.

Despite this population decline, the reason for good Olympic results until recently is "genes." In 1970, the average height of male high school students was 165.9 cm. Thirty years later, in 2000, the average height rose to 173 cm. When a tall and large person fights a small person, the larger one generally has the advantage. The exception is combat sports, which divide competitors by weight class to determine the winner. In the past, Korea was stronger in the lightweight categories of combat sports. Now, with a smaller pool of athletes but taller heights, it is difficult to expect good results in the future. Instead, medals have started to come from sports like swimming and skating, which were unimaginable in the 1980s and 1990s. These are sports that have become advantageous due to increased height.

The problem is that genes have long shown their limits. As of 2023, the average height of male high school students is 173.2 cm. The average height of high school students has stagnated over the past 20 years. Recently, it has even slightly decreased. The figure, which rose to 173.7 cm in 2010, dropped to 173.5 cm in 2014. Lack of exercise is cited as a reason. The era when inherited genes exerted their power and better nutrition led to greater height is over. Now, eating more only leads to spreading sideways rather than growing taller.

The population decline problem is said to be serious. However, it is hard to feel its impact. In fact, Korea's population is still slightly increasing. Although newborns have decreased, average life expectancy has increased. This Olympics is the first major event where the impact of population decline can be experienced. This is because the main participants are teenagers and people in their 20s, whose numbers have sharply decreased. It is difficult to compete globally with a small population. In the future, the Olympics are likely to become an event that preemptively shows the negative aspects of rapid population decline.