[The Editors' Verdict] AI Revolution and the Population Cliff Crisis

Malthus' "Population Explosion and Food Shortage" Prediction
Overlooking Human Potential... Prediction Missed the Mark
Technological Advances... Population Decline Cannot Replace Consumer Market

If the British thinker Thomas Malthus had known about South Korea's birth rate, he would have been 'facepalming.' In his 1798 work "An Essay on the Principle of Population," he predicted that while food supply increases arithmetically, population grows geometrically, leading humanity to face severe food shortages. He argued that because the population growth rate outpaces food production, food scarcity would occur, resulting in increased poverty and crime, and thus advocated for strong birth control policies. In South Korea, until the 1980s, population slogans like "Don't distinguish between sons and daughters, just have one and raise them well" were popular, reflecting state-level efforts to suppress childbirth.

However, Malthus's prediction missed the mark by overlooking technological advancements. Agricultural technology improvements led to crop breeding enhancements, and the use of chemical fertilizers significantly increased agricultural production. Meanwhile, rapid urbanization following the Industrial Revolution increased the burden of child-rearing, causing birth rates to plummet. Most developed countries are now concerned about low birth rates.

In South Korea, the total fertility rate dropped to 0.65 in the fourth quarter of last year. This is nearly a 90% decrease from 5.95 in 1960. If this trend continues, projections suggest that the population could fall below 50 million around 2040. Major research institutions warn that if such low birth rates persist, South Korea's potential growth rate could enter the zero percent range by around 2050.

At the end of last year, when the U.S.-based OpenAI released the conversational AI chatbot "ChatGPT," Malthus's inaccurate population prediction came to mind. AI has entered the stage of 'creation,' once considered a uniquely human domain, demonstrating advanced capabilities such as more sophisticated understanding of language context and self-correction of errors compared to previous AI models. This technological advancement raises hopes that increased industrial productivity and growth rates could overturn the population crisis theory. Just as Malthus overlooked human potential, might the threat of population extinction also be overcome by leaps in technology?

In fact, AI-powered robots are rapidly replacing human labor in recent retail settings. The chicken franchise bhc Chicken recently decided to introduce the frying robot "TuiiBot" in about 30 stores. Earlier, Hanwha Foodtech acquired the U.S. robotic pizza brand "Stella Pizza," which possesses world-class technology in the pizza robot market. This brand's pizza robot takes just over five minutes to make a 12-inch pizza. CJ Freshway, a group catering specialist, has introduced automation equipment in over 110 cafeterias, using robots from ingredient preparation to cooking. Soon, robots that think and act like humans may emerge.

However, even if productivity dramatically increases, AI will not be able to replace the consumer market, a key pillar of the economy. Therefore, efficient population policies are necessary. The Korea Future Population Institute projected in its early 2024 "Population Report" that due to low birth rates and other factors, the working-age population, the core of the consumer market, will decrease by about 10 million within 20 years. This will lead to a decline in consumer vitality, causing a collapse of the domestic market, increasing the burden of elderly support, and rapidly slowing economic growth, solidifying low growth.

Although the government has poured 380 trillion won over the past 18 years, the birth rate continues to decline. The possibility of a dramatic rebound in birth rates within the next 20 years also seems slim. South Korea will enter a super-aged society starting next year. It must actively pioneer new consumer markets such as the 'Senior Shift' (an economy centered on the elderly).