New York Stock Market Rises Together Amid 'Trump Shooting' News... Dow Hits All-Time High

'Trump SNS' TMGT Stock Rises Over 30%
Investors Await GOP Convention, June Retail Sales, Earnings
Powell's Remarks Also in Focus This Afternoon

The three major indices of the U.S. New York stock market showed an upward trend early in trading on the 15th (local time). Following the dramatic survival of former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, from an assassination attempt on the 13th, there are growing expectations of his increased chances of winning the November presidential election, and the asset market is analyzing the impact of this event. Stocks benefiting from Trump, such as TMTG, which operates Trump's social media platform Truth Social, surged by 30%. Investors are expected to monitor the Republican National Convention schedule that began this week while digesting corporate Q2 earnings and June retail sales data.

As of 10:34 a.m. at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the same day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% from the previous close to 40,200.86, breaking its all-time high. The large-cap focused S&P 500 index increased 0.6% to 5,649.09, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index traded up 0.88% at 18,560.76.

Investors are closely watching the impact of the shooting incident involving former President Trump on the asset market. On the afternoon of the 13th, around 6:10 p.m., during an outdoor rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, an assassin's bullet grazed Trump's right ear, causing injury. Immediately after the shooting, while being surrounded by security guards and evacuating, Trump showed composure, strength, and resilience by repeatedly clenching his fist in front of a waving American flag overhead. This has led to expectations that Trump's support base will further consolidate, smoothing his path to the presidency.

Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, said, "The good news is that former President Trump was injured only on his ear and did not die," adding, "As a result, the market is expected to maintain its momentum."

Trump and the Republican Party are holding their convention as scheduled for four days starting today in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Having survived the assassination attempt dramatically, Trump is expected to be officially nominated as the Republican presidential candidate, solidifying the 'Trump momentum.'

By stock, those expected to benefit from Trump's election are on the rise. TMTG, which operates Truth Social, surged 31.3% amid growing expectations of Trump's election chances. Humana and UnitedHealth Group rose 1.94% and 1.17%, respectively, as insurance companies are expected to face less cost pressure under a Republican administration. Goldman Sachs rose 0.57% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 earnings.

Investors will monitor the Republican National Convention this week while digesting June retail sales data and corporate earnings reports. June retail sales, to be released on the 16th, are expected to have decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month. In May, retail sales had increased by 0.1%.

Later in the day, remarks by Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), are also scheduled. The key question is what signals Powell will send to markets expecting a rate cut in September. Last week, Powell testified before Congress, warning that "if policy constraints are eased too late or too little, economic activity and employment could weaken excessively," signaling a gradual shift in Fed policy focus from price stability to full employment. He also hinted at the possibility of cutting rates before inflation reaches 2%.

Investors are taking the September rate cut prospect as a given. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool on the day, the federal funds futures market reflects a 94.4% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 0.25 percentage points at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, a sharp rise from 75.6% a week ago.

U.S. Treasury yields are rising. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, a global bond yield benchmark, rose 4 basis points (1bp = 0.01 percentage points) to 4.22%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to monetary policy, is trading around 4.45%, unchanged from the previous trading day.

International oil prices are steady amid mixed concerns over demand slowdown in China, the largest oil importer, production cuts by oil-producing countries, and supply worries due to Middle East conflicts. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose $0.07 to $82.28 per barrel compared to the previous trading day, while Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, increased $0.03 to $85.06 per barrel.