"Must Defeat Han Dong-hoon"... Will Na Kyung-won and Won Hee-ryong Achieve Last-Minute Unification?

Handonghun vs Non-Handonghun Structure Needed for Victory
Na and Won Clash Over "Must Unite as Na"

With the party convention to elect the next leader of the People Power Party (PPP) scheduled for July 23 just eight days away, the possibility of a unification between candidates Na Kyung-won and Won Hee-ryong has emerged as a last-minute variable. As official events such as joint speeches and broadcast debates proceed, the "Han Dong-hoon momentum" is solidifying, leading to the judgment that Na and Won cannot win by fighting separately.

On the morning of the 15th, after the founding general meeting of the National Assembly Global Diplomacy and Security Forum, when reporters asked candidate Na about the possibility of behind-the-scenes talks for unification with candidate Won, he said, "It won't be an artificial unification, but considering the trend of public opinion, I think it will happen." Although he is not openly demanding unification, this can be interpreted as acknowledging the necessity of unification to defeat candidate Han.

As the party convention approaches, candidates Na Kyung-won, Won Hee-ryong, and Yoon Sang-hyun are under intense pressure. The People Power Party will conduct mobile voting for the electorate on July 19-20, just four days away. On July 21-22, ARS voting and general public opinion polls will be conducted for electorate members who did not participate in the mobile voting.

However, according to various public opinion polls released so far, the three candidates have not been able to break candidate Han's dominance in suitability surveys for party leader candidates. According to a poll conducted by Gallup Korea from July 9 to 11 (the second week of July) targeting 1,000 people nationwide aged 18 and over, and announced on the 12th, candidate Han recorded a support rate of 36% (wireless phone interviewer survey method, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate 11.2%; detailed information available on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website). Candidate Na Kyung-won had 17%, candidate Won Hee-ryong 10%, and candidate Yoon Sang-hyun 7%. This figure rose by 8 percentage points compared to the poll conducted two weeks before the controversy over ignoring Mrs. Kim Geon-hee's text messages. In the same poll, looking only at 566 People Power Party supporters and undecided voters (margin of error ±4.1 percentage points), the gap widened further: Han Dong-hoon 45%, Na Kyung-won 15%, Won Hee-ryong 12%, Yoon Sang-hyun 3%, and 25% undecided.

Na Kyung-won, Won Hee-ryong, Han Dong-hoon, and Yoon Sang-hyun, four candidates for the People Power Party leadership, are taking a commemorative photo on the 11th at the MBN studio in Jung-gu, Seoul, before the second broadcast debate for party leader candidates. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

The reason the two candidates, who had previously denied unification, are now showing positive responses is the analysis that dragging the party leader election to a runoff vote to create a Han Dong-hoon vs. non-Han Dong-hoon scenario increases the possibility of defeating candidate Han. However, since both Na and Won are demanding the other to consolidate support for themselves and the difference in support rates is not large, unification is expected to be difficult.

Both candidates have shown positive reactions to unification in meetings with reporters, but Na insists "Won should help," while Won insists "Na should help," each claiming the other should support them. On the 13th, after a meeting with the Gyeongnam·Changwon party members' council, candidate Na told reporters, "If our thoughts are similar, rather than a rough fight, wouldn't it be better if (Won) withdraws?" and added, "Wouldn't it be natural for him to help me?" In an interview with KBS Radio that morning, candidate Won said about unification, "I don't particularly want to talk about this," but added, "Politics is a living thing. If I help, Na will help me."