[Good Morning Market] Trump Shooting, Market Volatility Watch... "KOSPI Rebound Possible"

Trump Election Probability Rises by 11%P
Focus on US 10-Year Treasury Yield Trend
China Q2 Economic Growth Rate Announced
Triple Economic Steering Committee Meeting Opens

The Korean stock market is expected to start higher on the 15th. Despite the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June exceeding market expectations, the US stock market rebounded on hopes of a rate cut in September. However, volatility in the domestic market is likely to increase due to external factors such as news of the shooting of former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, and China's second-quarter economic growth rate to be announced on the same day.

On the 12th (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 40,090, up 247.15 points (0.62%) from the previous session. The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index closed at 5,615.35, up 30.81 points (0.55%), and the Nasdaq index ended at 18,398.45, up 115.04 points (0.63%) from the previous session.

The New York stock market rebounded following the release of the US June PPI. The headline PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, while the core PPI remained flat compared to the previous month. This figure is a slowdown from the 0.2% monthly increase in core PPI in May. As a result, expectations grew that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut the benchmark interest rate in September, leading to an influx of bargain buying sentiment.

Meanwhile, news of the shooting of former President Trump is expected to increase market volatility. After the attack, Trump's chances of winning the election rose by 11 percentage points to 69%. Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, analyzed, "As seen at the end of June to early July, when concerns about a worsening fiscal deficit and the resumption of tariff wars if Trump were elected led to a sharp rise in the US 10-year bond yield to the 4.4% range, short-term interest rate increases may appear again this week, potentially increasing the price volatility of growth stocks both domestically and internationally."

Kim Seok-hwan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "The successful rebound of the US stock market last Friday is expected to increase the possibility of a rebound in the domestic market," adding, "During the session, China's second-quarter growth rate and the triple meeting are expected to raise expectations for economic stimulus."