National Pension Research Institute, 'Medium-Term Financial Outlook of the National Pension (2024-2028)' Report
By 2027, it is projected that the National Pension will no longer be able to cover pension benefit expenditures solely with insurance premium income.
According to the "Mid-term Financial Outlook of the National Pension (2024?2028)" report released on the 12th by the National Pension Research Institute, the total number of National Pension subscribers is expected to decrease from 22,054,921 in 2024 to 21,857,809 in 2025, 21,696,271 in 2026, 21,552,859 in 2027, and 21,407,793 in 2028. This represents a reduction of 644,128 subscribers over five years, due to the continuous decline in the working-age population.
On the other hand, the number of pension beneficiaries is expected to increase significantly. The total number of beneficiaries, including old-age, survivor, disability pensions, as well as lump-sum returns, disability, and death benefits, is projected to rise from 7,357,515 in 2024 to 7,927,714 in 2025, 8,536,178 in 2026, 9,164,834 in 2027, and 9,344,388 in 2028. This is an increase of 1,986,873 beneficiaries over five years, as the baby boom generation (born 1955?1963) retires and joins the ranks of beneficiaries.
As the number of beneficiaries continues to grow, the total annual pension benefit amount is expected to increase from 45.198 trillion KRW in 2024 to 73.5654 trillion KRW in 2028. Pension benefit expenditures will surge from 45.198 trillion KRW in 2024 to 51.9564 trillion KRW in 2025 and 59.5712 trillion KRW in 2026. Consequently, by 2027, income alone will no longer be sufficient to cover expenditures.
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