"Plan for Second Peace Conference Before November"
Concerns Over Ceasefire Favoring Russia if Trump Wins
European Countries Also Aligning with Trump Side
The Ukrainian government is on high alert as the possibility of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has consistently opposed support for Ukraine, running for re-election arises. They are preparing for a Trump re-election by even planning to hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin before the U.S. presidential election. At the NATO summit led by President Joe Biden, some European countries were also seen rushing to make contact with Trump’s close associates, suggesting that the direction of European security and diplomacy around the U.S. election could be significantly shaken.
"Ukraine hopes for summit with Putin before U.S. election"
Bloomberg News recently cited sources saying, "The Ukrainian government is planning to hold a second peace conference before the November U.S. election and wants a summit with President Putin," adding, "This shows the urgency felt by the Ukrainian government after the increased possibility of Trump’s re-election."
The Ukrainian peace conference was held in Switzerland on the 15th of last month, attended by about 90 countries, but Russia was not even invited due to Ukraine’s opposition. However, as the possibility of a U.S. regime change grows, Ukraine’s stance has shifted. If former President Trump is elected, there is a high possibility that the U.S. will pressure Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire. Earlier, Trump declared during his campaign, "If elected, I can end the Ukraine war before taking office in January."
However, it remains uncertain whether Russia will actually agree to a summit and ceasefire negotiations as Ukraine hopes. On the 5th, President Putin said at a press conference, "I take very seriously Trump’s declaration as a presidential candidate that he is ready to stop the Ukraine war," but emphasized, "We will not declare a ceasefire until measures acceptable to Russia are taken."
Trump, who has persistently opposed military aid to Ukraine... Concerns over approving a ceasefire favorable to Russia
If former President Trump succeeds in his re-election, there is a strong possibility that military aid to Ukraine will be completely cut off or drastically reduced. According to the British BBC, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb?n, who met Trump at his Florida residence in March, said, "Trump said he would not give a single penny to Ukraine."
Not only Trump but also the U.S. Republican Party holds a negative stance, arguing that support for Ukraine is excessive. At the end of last year, the Republican Party opposed the passage of a $60 billion (about 83 trillion won) Ukraine aid budget for months, which was barely passed in April. According to a poll released in May by the U.S. polling organization Pew Research Center, 49% of Republican supporters said the U.S. spends too much on Ukraine.
Ultimately, with the expected reduction of support for Ukraine if Trump is elected, Ukraine fears that it may be forced by the U.S. government to accept a ceasefire with Russia or even be abandoned altogether. Some even predict that the U.S. might withdraw from NATO entirely.
Dr. Michelle Bentley, who studies international relations at Royal Holloway, University of London, told the BBC, "Trump’s message is already influencing the world," and pointed out, "President Putin may already be emboldened by the possibility of Trump’s return to power."
Biden-hosted NATO summit... Europe lining up with Trump’s associates
At the NATO summit held on the 9th in Washington D.C., led by President Biden, it was revealed that the main focus of European countries was contact with Trump’s close associates. This is interpreted as many European countries preparing in advance for the possibility of Trump’s election.
According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), contacts between Trump’s close associates such as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Keith Kellogg, head of the American First Policy Institute (AFPI) Center for U.S. Security, and European government officials increased significantly before and after the NATO summit. Kellogg told WSJ, "Since last November, I have had more than 160 contacts with foreign government officials," adding, "Simply put, they are hedging their political bets."
The U.S. political media outlet Politico diagnosed, "European leaders are more interested in Trump’s policies than Washington. It’s a 'Marranato meeting' looking at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago golf resort in Florida rather than the White House," and noted, "The courting of Trump is especially active among Eastern and Northern European countries that are vulnerable to security threats due to proximity to Russia."
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