Biden, Who Lagged in Battleground States, Narrows Poll Gap Despite Debate Defeat

Bloomberg·Morning Consult Survey
Biden 45%·Trump 47%... Previous Survey 44%·48%

U.S. President Joe Biden has narrowed the polling gap with former President Donald Trump in battleground states despite his defeat in the first presidential debate, according to a recent poll.

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According to a poll conducted by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult from the 1st to the 5th (local time) among 4,902 voters in seven battleground states, released on the 6th, President Biden received 45% support, trailing former President Trump, who had 47%, by 2 percentage points (margin of error ±3-5 percentage points).

Since polling began in battleground states last October, President Biden had consistently trailed in support, making this the smallest gap since the survey started. In the same poll conducted in May, President Biden had 44% support while former President Trump had 48%, a 4 percentage point difference between the two candidates.

In this poll, former President Trump led by 1 to 7 percentage points in five states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. President Biden held a 5 percentage point lead in Michigan and a 3 percentage point lead in Wisconsin.

Only 39% of voters responded that President Biden should complete the presidential race. Among Democrats, 29% said President Biden should withdraw from the race, while 58% of independents and 79% of Republicans said his resignation is necessary.

This poll draws attention as it comes amid calls for a candidate replacement following President Biden’s decisive loss in the TV debate. According to polls by The New York Times (NYT) and others, President Biden’s support has declined further compared to former President Trump after the debate. However, analyses suggest that in battleground states, which will determine the election outcome, the debate may not have influenced voter sentiment as much as expected.

Ellie Yochelson, a U.S. political analyst at Morning Consult, said, "This result shows increased concerns about Biden’s mental acuity," but added, "(Voters’ concerns) do not reach the level of alarm within the Democratic Party."

Earlier, during the TV debate held on the 27th of last month, President Biden’s stammering and vacant stares heightened concerns about his age and cognitive abilities. Calls for a candidate replacement have emerged both inside and outside the Democratic Party fearing an election loss, but President Biden has expressed his intention to complete the race and continues election campaigning and broadcast interviews. However, demands for his resignation within the party and pressure from major donors to stop contributions persist, making it unlikely that the candidate replacement issue will be easily resolved. Meanwhile, this week’s NATO summit and Democratic Party meetings are expected to be a critical turning point for President Biden’s future.