[Interview] Gallucci "Russia May Transfer Nuclear Weapon Technology to Pyongyang"

'US State Department North Korea Nuclear Envoy during the "Geneva Agreement"
Concerns over Military Technology Support under North Korea-Russia Treaty
"Nuclear Armament Theory" Gains Momentum, but Extended Deterrence Emphasized

There is an analysis from a U.S. North Korea expert suggesting that Russia may transfer 'nuclear weapons technology' to North Korea. While public opinion in South Korea is gaining momentum for 'nuclear armament' in response to the military closeness between North Korea and Russia, the United States is still focusing on 'strengthening extended deterrence' centered on its alliances.

"Russia May Transfer Advanced Military Technology to North Korea"

Robert Gallucci, former U.S. State Department Special Representative for North Korea Nuclear Issues, is being interviewed at the Jeju Forum held in Seogwipo City, Jeju, last May. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Robert Gallucci, former U.S. State Department special envoy for North Korean nuclear issues, stated in a written interview with Asia Economy on the 2nd, "Among the political implications of the North Korea-Russia agreement, it is very regrettable that Russia has deviated from the countries supporting the United Nations Security Council sanctions on North Korea's nuclear and missile programs," adding, "The United States, Northeast Asian allies, and the rest of the international community must condemn this issue." Gallucci, who served as U.S. State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary and was a key figure in the 1994 'Geneva Agreed Framework' that helped resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis shortly after Kim Jong-il came to power, made these remarks.

Gallucci expressed concern, saying, "The new agreement suggests Russia's material support for North Korea's military capabilities," and "It could seriously threaten countries both within and outside the region." He particularly emphasized, "We must recognize that Russia could provide not only nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology but also multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) and decoy technologies for interception evasion, submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) technology, and even space and reconnaissance satellite capabilities." He added, "If such a thing occurs, the United States and its allies must consider more than just 'diplomatic responses.'"

As North Korea and Russia deepen their military ties, discussions about 'nuclear armament' or 'tactical nuclear redeployment' are steadily emerging not only in South Korea but also within the U.S. Congress. This has become a realistic option coinciding with the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November. There is a prospect that if former President Donald Trump, who has consistently exaggerated and expressed dissatisfaction with the cost of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, returns to power, support for 'independent nuclear armament' due to a reduction of U.S. forces in South Korea could strengthen.

Na Kyung-won, a member of the People Power Party, stated at a forum the day before, "If I become party leader, I will adopt the 'three principles of nuclear armament' as the party's official stance and promote nuclear armament." The National Security Strategy Institute, a think tank affiliated with the National Intelligence Service, also suggested in a report on the North Korea-Russia summit on the 21st of last month that "the government should review and publicize options such as tactical nuclear redeployment, independent nuclear armament, or acquiring potential nuclear capabilities."

Growing Support for 'Independent Nuclear Armament'... U.S. Emphasizes "Trust in Extended Deterrence"

However, Gallucci cautioned against thinking that the North Korea-Russia treaty alone will change the strategic landscape in the region. He said, "We must remember the 'Budapest Memorandum,' which promised Ukraine's territorial integrity," pointing out, "As a result, years later, Russia annexed Ukrainian territory and launched a full-scale invasion." The 'Budapest Memorandum' is a nuclear disarmament agreement signed in 1994 by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia with Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. Ukraine agreed to transfer all its nuclear warheads to Russia in exchange for guarantees of territorial and political independence, but Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014 and invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Supporters of nuclear armament cite this incident as evidence of the necessity of possessing nuclear weapons, arguing that Ukraine was invaded after giving up its nuclear arsenal. However, Gallucci's remarks suggest that Russia may change its stance toward North Korea depending on its interests.

In this context, he expressed skepticism about South Korea's nuclear armament. When asked whether the U.S. completely denies the possibility of South Korea's nuclear armament or leaves it as a future option, he replied, "I hope people do not expect the U.S. to reconsider its decision 30 years ago to withdraw nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula or its support for South Korea's status as a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)." At the 'Jeju Forum' in May, he also told reporters, "Even a single tactical nuclear weapon can completely destroy a city, so discussing such weapon systems as an option is problematic." He also noted that there is no guarantee that North Korea would not launch a preemptive strike if nuclear armament or tactical nuclear redeployment were pursued.

Gallucci concluded, "For now, it is sufficient to say that the United States and its allies, including South Korea, Japan, and Australia, trust U.S. deterrence and have every reason to maintain the capability to extend this deterrence to allies." He added, "The U.S. deterrence posture toward its allies has been maintained by U.S. nuclear assets deployed on land and at sea and will continue to be maintained in the future."