"Macron's Gamble Fails" 'Far-Right Surge' Confirmed Again in First Round of French Legislative Election (Comprehensive)

"French President Emmanuel Macron's gamble has largely failed. (The Economist)"

"Voters are punishing President Macron and encouraging the far-right. (The Washington Post)"

Following the European Parliament elections, the far-right party has gained momentum in the first round of France's early general election, putting President Macron further on the defensive. Macron's gamble to overturn the situation by highlighting the risk of the far-right party potentially coming to power through the surprise early election card has ultimately backfired. The far-right National Rally (RN), which topped the polls in the first-round exit polls, aims to secure a majority of seats in the second (runoff) round and even produce the country's first far-right prime minister.

French President Emmanuel Macron [Photo by AFP Yonhap News]

"No surprise"... Far-right party leads in first-round exit polls

According to the combined exit polls from the first round of the early general election held on the 30th of last month (local time), the far-right RN recorded a vote share of 33-34%, far ahead of the left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) at 28-29% and the ruling party Renaissance-led Ensemble at 21-22%.

If the current exit polls hold true, RN could potentially secure a parliamentary majority. ELABE, citing BFM TV exit polls, estimated RN would win between 255 and 295 seats. NFP is expected to secure 120-140 seats, and Ensemble 90-125 seats. The French National Assembly has 577 seats, requiring at least 289 for a majority. However, Ipsos's seat analysis projects RN to win 230-280 seats, falling short of a majority.

Locally, the consensus is that "there was no surprise." The exit polls released so far show RN's support 1-2 percentage points lower than pre-election polls, while NFP and Ensemble remain at similar levels. The market has already priced in concerns about far-right governance, reflected in the France-Germany bond yield spreads, with no significant movements observed currently. Andrea Tueni, head of Saxo Bank France, said, "Since this is not a surprising result, there is no reason for the market to plunge."

Notably, the high first-round turnout of 67% (provisional) indicates strong interest in this early general election. This is 19.5 percentage points higher than the 47.5% turnout in the first round of the 2022 general election. The sudden announcement of the early election, accumulated dissatisfaction with the Macron administration, and fears of the first-ever far-right majority party emerging are analyzed as factors contributing to the high turnout.

Marine Le Pen, the de facto leader of RN, welcomed the exit poll results at a press conference, calling it "a clear vote showing the will of the French people." She added, "This is not a victory yet," urging voters to give RN an absolute majority in the second round so that President Macron would have to appoint RN leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister.

Marine Le Pen, the de facto leader of the French far-right party National Rally (RN)
[Photo by AFP Yonhap News]

Macron's gamble, a misstep? Possibility of 'cohabitation government' or 'hung parliament'

While the far-right RN has moved closer to parliamentary power, the ruling Renaissance-led Ensemble coalition faces the risk of its seats being halved. The Economist described the election results as "a humiliating defeat for Macron's centrist coalition Ensemble," noting that the president's unexpected decision to call early elections shocked even his allies and backfired. One lawmaker called the projection that Ensemble, currently holding about 250 seats, could drop to around 120 seats "a complete disaster."

The Washington Post, reporting from Paris, stated, "President Macron did not concede defeat, calling for democratic and republican unity in the second round," but added, "The exit poll results suggest his gamble has had a massive backlash and his political influence has sharply diminished." Originally, Macron's early election announcement aimed to highlight the risk of far-right governance and curb RN's momentum confirmed in the European Parliament elections, but instead, it strengthened the far-right. Political analyst Chloe Morin suggested, "Macron may have underestimated the anger some citizens feel toward him."

If RN ultimately secures a parliamentary majority, France would see its first far-right prime minister since the far-right party's emergence in 1972. RN leader Bardella has stated he would only serve as prime minister if RN wins an outright majority. This would likely lead to the fourth-ever 'cohabitation government,' where the president and prime minister belong to different parties. Macron has previously stated he would not resign the presidency even if he loses the general election before the 2027 election, but a cohabitation government would inevitably weaken his political standing. Macron's reform agenda would likely be scaled back, and pro-European, pro-business policies could be replaced by RN's Euroscepticism, anti-immigration, and populist policies.

Since RN may not secure an outright majority, the possibility of a 'hung parliament' is high. This is also expected to lead to political turmoil in France. CNN reported, "RN is expected to win the most seats but may fall short of the 289-seat majority," indicating France is heading toward parliamentary deadlock and greater political uncertainty. Eurasia Group's Mustaba Rahman analyzed, "France will face irreconcilable parliamentary deadlock and chaos, which is bad news not only for France but also for the European Union (EU) and Ukraine."

Even if Macron forms a coalition government in a hung parliament scenario, it is expected to be weak. Major foreign media predict that centrist lawmakers who lose their constituencies in this election and other existing supporters may turn their backs on Macron. G?rard Araud, former French ambassador to the United States, assessed, "France's crisis has only just begun."

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

"It's not over yet" Movements to block RN in second round... protests erupt nationwide

Immediately after the first round, each party began efforts to consolidate their support bases for the second round. RN's Le Pen emphasized the need for a majority to ensure stable government operation. Conscious of voters concerned about anti-immigration policies, she also stated, "No French citizen will lose their rights," and "We will create new rights for everyone's benefit as circumstances allow."

On the other hand, voices from the left-wing alliance and centrists call for preventing the far-right party from coming to power. They argue that the best choice to counter RN is themselves and advocate for the withdrawal of third-place candidates in constituencies with three-way contests to unify candidates.

President Macron, in a statement immediately after the exit polls were released, appealed, "The second round requires broad and clear democratic and republican unity against RN." Prime Minister Gabriel Attal also said at a press conference, "We must prevent the far-right party from winning in the second round," adding, "Not a single vote should go to RN." Attal had initially planned to sign a decree the next day introducing new limits on unemployment benefits but decided to halt it in light of the election results.

Jean-Luc M?lenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (LFI) within the left-wing NFP alliance, called the election "a clear defeat for President Macron," emphasizing that NFP is the best alternative. The four parties within the NFP camp have clearly stated that third-place candidates should withdraw to consolidate votes for the second-place candidates. Former President Fran?ois Hollande, running under the NFP banner, urged, "If we do not unite in the second round, the risk of far-right governance will become a reality," calling to "bring everyone together."

With vote counting still underway, more than 80 lawmakers have been confirmed elected in the first round. The remaining constituencies will hold the second round on July 7. The second round pits candidates who received at least 12.5% of registered voters' support in the first round or the top two candidates against each other, with the highest vote-getter winning. Accordingly, each party must finalize their second-round candidate lists within 48 hours. Major foreign media report that intense unification negotiations between the left-wing alliance and centrists will take place to block the far-right RN from coming to power. Protests opposing far-right rule have also erupted in places like Place de la R?publique in Paris, with thousands participating.