The Hidden Agony of 'North Korea's Missile Exaggeration' [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Claims of Successful Ballistic Missile Launch and Military Reconnaissance Satellite
South Korea-US Military Authorities Say "Virtually a Failure... For Displaying External Technology"

There is interest in whether the ballistic missile launched by North Korea on the 26th was successful. While the North claims it was a "successful multiple warhead test," South Korean and U.S. military authorities have classified it as a failure.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, our military has been monitoring signs of North Korea's missile launch preparations for 24 hours. The missile launched this time was detected by ballistic missile surveillance radar and ground surveillance assets. Video footage captured by thermal observation devices (TOD) operated by forward units identified the missile's body rotating abnormally from the ascent phase until it exploded in midair.

Our military stated, "Abnormal flight patterns were identified from the ascent phase, and it is presumed that this flight instability caused the missile to explode." Regarding North Korea's claim that the test involved a "multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle" (MIRV) missile, the South Korea-U.S. alliance assessed it as "an exaggeration to cover up failure."

Military Satellite North Korea Claims Success With... Photos Not Released

North Korea has continued to exaggerate to showcase its technological capabilities externally. The military reconnaissance satellite it launched suddenly on the night of November 21 last year is a similar case. At that time, the National Aerospace Development Administration reported to Chairman Kim Jong Un, who visited the Pyongyang Integrated Control Center, that "Manriki-1 will begin official reconnaissance missions from December 1 after completing detailed control processes over 7 to 10 days." It was also reported that Chairman Kim viewed aerospace photos taken over the Pacific region, including Andersen Air Force Base and Apra Harbor, major U.S. military bases. However, these photos have yet to be released publicly.

The South Korea-U.S. alliance assesses that North Korea's military reconnaissance satellite capabilities are insufficient. North Korea claimed successful launches of Kwangmyongsong-3 Unit 2 and Kwangmyongsong-4 satellites launched in 2012 and 2016, respectively, but they were found to be nonfunctional. Although they entered orbit, there was no communication with the ground, rendering them incapable of functioning as satellites. Manriki-1 must undergo procedures to verify whether the satellite platform and optical payload operate as designed, communicate signals with ground stations, and transmit photos and videos of the ground to confirm quality. North Korea's military reconnaissance satellites have yet to prove that communication has been established.

New Russian Engine Under Performance Improvement

However, military experts are focusing on North Korea's missile engines. They differ from the engines used previously. It is analyzed that North Korea received technology transfer from Russia and is improving performance.

North Korea conducted test launches of hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) with solid-fuel propulsion systems on January 14 and April 2. The missiles flew approximately 1,000 km and 600 km, respectively, before falling. Both launches took place in the Pyongyang area, the same location as the recent launch.

This IRBM is different. A military official said there is a possibility that this ballistic missile is a hypersonic IRBM with a solid-fuel propulsion system, adding, "They claimed to have verified the reliability of solid-fuel engines in January and April and announced successful test flights. It is speculated that this time they tested something a bit more advanced."

Russia transferred intermediate-range missile technology to North Korea after signing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with the United States in 1987 during the Soviet era. The INF Treaty was an agreement between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union to eliminate ground-launched nuclear missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km and to refrain from developing, producing, or deploying missiles in this category. However, the treaty was abandoned after the U.S. unilaterally withdrew in August 2019, citing Russia's continuous violations.

The launch vehicle engine for military satellites has also been changed. North Korea revealed that the rocket carrying the military reconnaissance satellite, which exploded in midair about two minutes after launch in May, was equipped with a new engine (rocket propellant). Instead of the engine used successfully in the November launch last year, they used an engine mainly employed in space launch vehicles, indicating an attempt to demonstrate technological progress.

North Korea mentioned the new rocket's propellant as "kerosene engine + liquid oxygen." This combination is mainly used in space launch vehicles. Kerosene is a type of jet fuel, referred to as petroleum in North Korea. The oxidizer, liquid oxygen, must be stored at an ultra-low temperature of minus 183 degrees Celsius. It is difficult to maintain for long after being loaded into the rocket, but it provides relatively strong thrust. South Korea's Naro and Nuri rockets, as well as the U.S. SpaceX Falcon, use this propellant.

There is also analysis that North Korea directly imported the "kerosene + liquid oxygen" propellant from Russia.

An intelligence official said, "Even if Russian technicians provided assistance to North Korea after the North Korea-Russia summit in September last year, it would be difficult to develop a new propellant within six months after the November launch," adding, "Liquid oxygen, as an oxidizer, is difficult to handle and requires at least two years of development time."