Far-Right at the Center of Power in France Smiles... Examining the Biggest Winners and Losers [Global Focus]

Far-Right RN Secures First Place in First Round of French Legislative Elections

"I will become the Prime Minister of all French citizens. While respecting the Constitution and the President, I will be a ‘cohabitation’ Prime Minister who does not compromise on the policies we implement."

On the night of the 30th of last month (local time), when the exit polls of the first round of the French early general election revealed a landslide victory for the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN), the speech by leader Jordan Bardella on the podium was a declaration of victory for the ‘outsiders’ themselves. The far-right RN, once classified as the most fringe party in French politics, has secured the position of the largest party in parliament for the first time since its founding in 1972, placing itself at the center of parliamentary power.

Marine Le Pen, the de facto leader of the French far-right party National Rally (RN)
[Photo by EPA Yonhap News]

The Biggest Winner is the ‘Far-Right’... Le Pen and Bardella Smile

It is unprecedented for a far-right party to hold the majority in the French parliament and come to power. Although RN previously held only 89 seats, polling agencies estimate based on the first-round exit polls that RN will secure around 230?280 seats (Ipsos) or 255?295 seats (ELABE). In particular, RN aims to leverage this momentum to secure a parliamentary majority in the second-round runoff on July 7 and, for the first time in history, produce a Prime Minister. President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise ‘early election’ card, intended to curb the far-right’s rise, appears to have ultimately strengthened the far-right.

Marine Le Pen, the de facto leader of RN and a presidential candidate for 2027, is regarded as one of the biggest winners of the early general election so far. Securing re-election in her constituency with an impressive 58% of the vote, Le Pen smiled broadly upon hearing the exit poll results. Politico Europe declared, "President Macron is already finished," and questioned, "Is there anyone who can stop Marine Le Pen?" The outlet also published an article titled ‘What the French Election Results Mean for Le Pen, Macron, and Others,’ stating, "Whether RN wins the second round on July 7 or not, Le Pen will be in the best position to lead the party and challenge for the French presidency in 2027."

Another winner is Jordan Bardella, who is on the verge of becoming the youngest Prime Minister in history in his 20s. As the political successor to the ‘far-right figurehead’ Marine Le Pen, Bardella is poised to become the next French Prime Minister if RN secures a parliamentary majority in the second round. This would break the record for the youngest Prime Minister in French history, surpassing the current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.

Major foreign media have cited Bardella’s popularity as one of the reasons for RN’s surge in support in recent years. With his likable appearance, gentle tone, and active social media presence, he has reshaped the image of the far-right party by tapping into public fatigue with established politics and anti-immigration sentiments.

'Far-right new face' Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally (RN)
[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Bruno Cautr?s, a political analyst at the Science Po research institute, said, "RN’s detoxification process (from fringe to mainstream) is in its final stage," adding, "They have won three consecutive European Parliament elections, and Le Pen has reached the presidential runoff twice. If they win the general election, they will become ‘mainstream’." Former President Fran?ois Hollande, who ran as part of the left-wing coalition, remarked, "Have you seen Le Pen and Bardella speak as if they are already in the highest offices of the state? It seems the President has been erased."

Beaten Macron, Will He Join Hands with the Far-Left?

On the other hand, the biggest losers of the first round of the early general election are undoubtedly President Emmanuel Macron and his ruling party Renaissance. Barely recovering from the humiliation of defeat by the far-right in the European Parliament elections, they faced voter rejection once again. The Ensemble coalition, currently holding about 250 seats including Renaissance and Horizons, is expected to shrink to around 100 seats. Even blunt warnings that "a victory by the far-right or far-left could trigger a ‘civil war’" failed to resonate.

French President Emmanuel Macron is seen leaving a polling station in Lettuce, northern France, after casting his vote in the first round of the general election on the 30th of last month (local time). [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Moreover, President Macron faces a difficult choice ahead of the second round on July 7: ‘far-right or far-left.’ To block RN’s rise to power, he must pursue candidate unification with the left-wing coalition, including far-left radicals, in many constituencies. On the night the exit poll results were released, Macron did not appear publicly except for a brief statement. Politico Europe commented, "President Macron is beaten and bruised," and noted, "It was a wise move for Prime Minister Attal, not Macron, to hold the press conference that night."

Each party is expected to finalize the list of candidates for the second round by the evening of July 2, within 48 hours after the first round. The centrist coalition aims to ally with the left-wing coalition to reduce RN’s seats, but it is likely to exclude the far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI) from the alliance. However, even in this case, LFI’s strong influence cannot be avoided, experts say.

Major foreign media have assessed that the best possible outcome Macron can hope for is a ‘hung parliament’ and a ‘powerless interim Prime Minister.’ This refers to a scenario where RN fails to secure an outright majority, resulting in a hung parliament, and the government is led by an interim Prime Minister rather than a far-right one. However, this situation would inevitably deepen political populism. Euronews predicted, "If no party gains a majority and no coalition is formed, a deadlock is inevitable. This unprecedented situation will plunge France into uncharted territory."

Far-Right and Left-Wing Pledges Raise Concerns: "Economic Risks and Sudden EU Policy Shifts"

Domestically, uncertainty over key policies from the economy to foreign affairs has increased significantly. France’s voice is expected to diminish in major foreign policy areas such as Ukraine and Israel, and many of Macron’s pro-business and pro-European Union (EU) policies are likely to be rolled back.

Patrick Martin, head of the business federation MEDEF, evaluated that both the far-right and left-wing coalition’s pledges pose "risks to the economy." Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), likened the far-left’s tax and spending policies to a ‘disaster,’ while describing the far-right’s policies as a ‘Christmas tree’ lacking logic or consistency.

RN, currently leading in estimated vote share, plans to implement strict immigration policies including strengthened border controls and abolition of jus soli (birthright citizenship). They also propose reducing the value-added tax (VAT) on energy from the current 20% to 5.5% and repealing the pension reforms pushed by President Macron. The left-wing coalition similarly advocates repealing pension reforms, raising the minimum wage, and abolishing tax cuts for the wealthy, all involving large-scale fiscal spending. Considering France’s current struggles with excessive fiscal deficits, experts warn that rampant populist policies could increase financial market risks. Some major foreign media have even suggested that the French general election could trigger a eurozone crisis.

Significant changes are also expected in foreign policy. Jordan Bardella, the likely next Prime Minister, has already made clear that he will not provide long-range missiles in support of Ukraine. This stance contradicts not only the Macron administration but also the policies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Macron’s initiatives to strengthen the EU’s autonomous defense capabilities, establish a capital markets union within the bloc, and expand EU membership are also expected to lose momentum. Some factions within the far-left camp even advocate for France’s withdrawal from the EU. Fran?ois Heisbourg, a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, warned, "A government dominated by extremists would cause turmoil not only in France but also among its allies, potentially weakening France’s international standing and NATO in the worst-case scenario."