"Trump Secures an Average of 287 Electoral Votes"
Famous for Predicting Obama's 2012 Election Victory
On the 26th (local time), Fox News and other local media reported that a prominent American poll expert predicted the probability of former President Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election to be 65.7%.
According to the report, American statistician Nate Silver stated on his blog that day, "Honestly, the candidate with a high chance of winning (former President Trump) is not the candidate I want to win (President Biden)." He added, "Based on 40,000 simulations, the probability of former President Trump winning is 65.7%, while the probability of President Biden winning is 33.7%."
In the statistical survey, former President Trump was found to have secured an average of 287.2 electoral votes, exceeding the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. However, in the popular vote, President Biden's winning probability (51%) slightly surpassed former President Trump's (49%). In the U.S. presidential election, which adopts a 'winner-takes-all' system, the candidate who secures the majority of the 538 electoral votes, allocated proportionally to each state's population, is elected president. In fact, in the 2016 election, former President Trump won the presidency by securing more electoral votes than Hillary Clinton, despite having fewer nationwide popular votes.
Silver pointed out, "Assuming the gap between the electoral vote and the popular vote in this year's election is similar to that of 2016 or 2020, President Biden will be in serious trouble if he cannot widen the gap in the popular vote against former President Trump." He criticized, "Experts who obsess over President Biden leading by 1-2 points in national polls are missing the point." Silver rose to stardom by accurately predicting not only the final winner but also the winner in each state in the 2012 presidential election between former President Barack Obama and former Senator Mitt Romney.
Meanwhile, President Biden and former President Trump will face off in a debate hosted by CNN tomorrow. According to the Associated Press and the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center (NORC), more than seven out of ten American voters believe this presidential debate will be a major turning point that could determine the election outcome. Since access to materials and contact with aides will be restricted, it is expected to be a key test to assess the cognitive abilities of the two candidates, both of whom face risks related to their advanced age.
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