[Exploring Ruling Party Leadership Candidates] ① Han Dong-hoon, Will He Break Through with Popular Appeal?

Popular Recognition as a Weapon... Weak Intra-Party Faction Is a Weakness
Lee Jae-myung's Rival... Threat If Conflict with Yoon Han Reignites

Former People Power Party Emergency Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon is running as a candidate for party leader in the July 23 party convention, competing against candidates Na Kyung-won, Won Hee-ryong, and Yoon Sang-hyun. He is a political newcomer. However, based on his experience leading the April 10 general election and public support, he is confident that he can lead the People Power Party well.

Han's strengths lie in his elite image favored by conservative voters and his presidential candidate-level popularity built through logically countering past battles with the Democratic Party of Korea. After the 22nd National Assembly convened on the 30th of last month, the minority ruling party People Power Party, holding 108 seats, was overwhelmed by the 192-seat opposition coalition, losing control over the formation of committees and various legislative initiatives. Nevertheless, party approval ratings remain neck and neck with the Democratic Party.

At a press conference held on the 23rd at the National Assembly Communication Office, Han used the word "public sentiment" ten times, emphasizing the horizontal reestablishment of the relationship between the party and government. This is interpreted as an intention to imprint the idea that he "speaks his mind." A member of his campaign team explained, "Although it is a party leader election, Han's conviction is that politics must ultimately follow the direction of public sentiment, and he believes this will ultimately prevail."

However, due to his limited political experience, his influence within the party is weak. The People Power Party's leadership election is conducted with 80% party member votes and 20% public opinion polls. The ability to mobilize party members is a key factor for winning. From this perspective, Han is at a disadvantage. Not being a current lawmaker or a party district committee chairman is also a weakness. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University noted, "Compared to other candidates, his political career is short," adding, "If the roots are weak, he is bound to waver when unexpected variables arise."

As former Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung's influence grows in the opposition camp, Han's role as a counterforce is seen as an opportunity. Rather than directly targeting other party leader candidates, Han has attacked Lee. On the previous day, Han appeared on Channel A and TV Chosun news programs, criticizing Lee's judicial risks, stating, "When the centrist voters withdraw their support and defect from Representative Lee Jae-myung, the People Power Party must have established a foundation that is not shameful to its support base, sufficiently reflected, and responded to the judgment to embrace those people."

However, the conflict rumors with President Yoon Suk-yeol that surfaced earlier this year still pose a risk. At that time, disagreements with President Yoon arose over the departure of former Ambassador to Australia Lee Jong-seop and allegations related to First Lady Kim Geon-hee, fueling discord rumors. Moreover, the recent proposal led by the ruling party to enact a special prosecutor law for third-party compensation has kept the tension alive, which is considered a crisis. Ultimately, to gain party leadership, Han must secure votes from party members and pro-Yoon factions, but if the Yoon-Han conflict reignites, it could deal a blow to Han.

Han has tried to block this by saying, "I hope President Yoon becomes a successful president," but other candidates persistently criticize this. Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, predicted, "Since support from the so-called pro-Yoon faction is important, if the election goes to a runoff, Han could be at a disadvantage."

[Image source=Yonhap News]