Savant "Labour Party to Win 516 of 650 Seats"
YouGov and More in Common Surveys Also Show Labour Party Landslide Victory
A new poll has predicted that the ruling Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, will suffer a near-total defeat in next month's UK general election. It is forecasted that the opposition Labour Party will secure a staggering 516 out of the total 650 seats in the House of Commons. Notably, Prime Minister Sunak is expected to become the first sitting prime minister to lose his seat to the Labour Party.
According to a survey conducted on the 19th (local time) by polling agencies Savanta and The Telegraph, the ruling Conservative Party is estimated to win only 53 seats in this election. This represents a decrease of over 300 seats from the 365 seats they held following the 2019 general election.
In contrast, the Labour Party is expected to expand its seats from 202 in the 2019 general election to 516 this time. This landslide victory far surpasses the Labour Party's past successes, such as when they defeated the Conservatives after 18 years in 1997 and when Prime Minister Tony Blair won again in the 2001 general election. Additionally, the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) are projected to increase their seats from 11 to 50, positioning them as a major opposition party capable of challenging the Conservatives.
On the same day, YouGov's seat projection survey also estimated that the Labour Party would comfortably secure a parliamentary majority with 425 seats. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party's seats are expected to drop to 108. This is not only a sharp decline from the 365 seats won in 2019 but also 32 fewer seats compared to a survey released two weeks earlier. YouGov commented, "If these predictions come true, the Conservative Party will have won the fewest seats in its approximately 200-year history of contesting elections." In a survey by political consultancy More in Common, the Labour Party was projected to win 406 seats, while the Conservatives would secure only 155 seats.
These polls further strengthen the expectation that the Labour Party will achieve a landslide victory in the UK general election scheduled for July 4. The low approval ratings for the Conservative Party reflect growing dissatisfaction among UK voters over issues such as Brexit, the pandemic, inflation caused by the Ukraine war, and a surge in illegal immigration.
In particular, most members of the cabinet, including Prime Minister Sunak and Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, are predicted to lose their seats in this election. The Telegraph reported, "Sunak will become the first sitting prime minister to lose his seat in a general election," adding that "Sunak's Richmond seat could go to the Labour Party."
Conservative ministers such as Chancellor Hunt, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Minister for Science, Innovation and Technology Michelle Donelan, and Education Secretary Gillian Keegan are expected to lose their seats to the Liberal Democrats. Meanwhile, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Transport Secretary Mark Harper, Wales Secretary David TC Davies, and Northern Ireland Secretary Steve Baker are projected to lose their seats to the Labour Party.
The Independent reported that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who resigned amid the 'Partygate' scandal, is also expected to lose his seat, stating, "The ghost of the Conservative Party (Johnson) can no longer help Sunak." Previously, Johnson had sent tens of thousands of letters appealing to Conservative voters to support Sunak.
YouGov analyzed, "With the Labour Party set to record a historic number of seats in London, the Conservative Party faces the risk of being completely pushed out of the capital," adding, "Labour is expected to win 63 out of 75 seats in London, turning 84% of the capital's seats red (Labour). This is an unprecedented level." Luke Trill, Executive Director of More in Common, also assessed that "the Conservative Party has fallen into a deep hole."
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