"Unprecedented Surge in North Korean Submarine Activity"... Will SLBM Be Launched This Summer?

Beyond Parallel, Analysis Based on Satellite Images
'Tactical Nuclear Attack Submarine' Kim Gun-ok Hero Ship Activity
North Korea Likely to Conduct SLBM Test Launch Soon

An analysis by a U.S. think tank revealed an unusual surge in North Korea's submarine-related activities.

According to the North Korea-focused site 'Beyond Parallel' of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on the 14th, in the past five weeks, activities at North Korea's Sinpo Shipyard involving the Kim Gun-ok Hero Submarine, the 8·24 Hero Submarine, and a missile submarine test barge have increased unusually. The Kim Gun-ok Hero Submarine is a vessel that North Korea claims to be its 'first tactical nuclear attack submarine,' and the 8·24 Hero Submarine is an experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA).

Satellite image capturing submarine-related activities around the Sinpo Shipyard area in North Korea. [Image source=Beyond Parallel]

Beyond Parallel identified these three vessels as central to North Korea's ballistic missile submarine, submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), and submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) development programs. The unusual increase in submarine-related activities suggests that North Korea may begin sea trials of the Kim Gun-ok Hero Submarine this summer, prepare for additional SLBM and SLCM launches, or possibly both.

Regarding the Kim Gun-ok Hero Submarine, after being first revealed in September last year and docked at Sinpo Shipyard, it was moved to the dry dock (a structure dug into the shore to allow large vessels to enter for construction or repair) in mid-last month. Although the exact work being carried out is not confirmed, the presence of a tower crane suggests possible installation of launch tubes for sea trials.

The 8·24 Hero Submarine was also moved to the dry dock in early last month. It has been repositioned under a security canopy, replacing the Kim Gun-ok Hero Submarine. Between late last month and early this month, a telescopic crane was installed above the security canopy but was absent in satellite images taken on the 6th. Additionally, the underwater missile test barge, previously located beside the shipyard passage, was relocated to the security zone and positioned at the stern of the 8·24 Hero Submarine. Historically, the telescopic crane was used for maintenance or experimental SLBM installation on the 8·24 Hero Submarine.

Beyond Parallel analyzed, "The future activities and successes of these vessels will significantly impact North Korea's submarine technology, SLBM design, and operations," adding, "These activities themselves may symbolize Kim Jong-un's increasingly aggressive diplomatic posture since last year."