The 'Military Agreement' Deflated Like a Trash Balloon... The Red Line Dilemma

Resolution to 'Suspend Effectiveness' Passed at Korean Prime Minister-led Cabinet Meeting
If Yoon Approves, 'Moon Government's Symbolic North Korea Policy' Becomes Paper Shred
Military Likely to Fully Activate Loudspeakers if North Korea Provokes Further

The government has made a decisive move to fully suspend the effectiveness of the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement in response to North Korea's 'filth balloon provocations.' With discussions even mentioning the reactivation of loudspeakers?a measure to which North Korea reacts most sensitively?the tension is rising over which side will cross the 'red line' first.

On the morning of the 4th, the government held a Cabinet meeting at the Government Complex Seoul, chaired by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, and approved the plan to fully suspend the effectiveness of the September 19 military agreement. Prime Minister Han stated, "The military agreement, rendered ineffective by North Korea's declaration of nullification, is causing many problems in our military's readiness posture," and added, "We intend to pursue a plan to suspend the entire effectiveness of the military agreement until mutual trust between the two Koreas is restored." He further emphasized, "This will enable sufficient and immediate responses to North Korea's provocations," and urged, "North Korea must immediately cease provocations that threaten peace and stability."

President Moon Jae-in and Chairman Kim Jong-un are watching Defense Minister Song Young-moo and Minister of People's Armed Forces No Kwang-chol sign the military agreement for the implementation of the Panmunjom Declaration at the Baekhwawon Guesthouse in September 2018. /Pyongyang Joint Press Corps Photo by Pyongyang Joint Press Corps

If President Yoon Suk-yeol approves, the September 19 military agreement, which symbolized the Moon Jae-in administration, will become null and void before reaching its sixth year. The military agreement was concluded in September 2018 during the third inter-Korean summit. It was a military sector agreement to implement the 'Panmunjom Declaration' announced in April of that year and an annex agreement to the September Pyongyang Joint Declaration. However, after record provocations, North Korea declared a 'complete nullification' last November. Effectively losing its validity, only the South remained bound by it. With the government's suspension of effectiveness, the shackles that have hindered the military's readiness will be lifted. From reactivating loudspeakers to conducting live-fire exercises and outdoor maneuver training near the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), which were previously prohibited, all can now be carried out without restrictions as before the agreement.

Some argue that the Panmunjom Declaration must also be nullified to operate the loudspeakers. The Panmunjom Declaration explicitly states, "All hostile acts, including loudspeaker broadcasts and leaflet distribution near the Military Demarcation Line, shall cease, and the means for such acts shall be dismantled." In contrast, the military agreement broadly addresses this by stating, "All hostile acts against the other party shall be completely suspended." Although this falls into the realm of interpretation, the government's judgment is as follows: The Panmunjom Declaration did not undergo Cabinet approval or National Assembly ratification, so it cannot be recognized as a 'formal inter-Korean agreement,' and suspending its effectiveness separately is meaningless. The military agreement also did not receive National Assembly ratification but was promulgated by then-President Moon Jae-in after Cabinet approval.

The current Inter-Korean Relations Development Act prohibits the operation of loudspeakers aimed at North Korea but includes a proviso that no punishment applies when 'the effectiveness of inter-Korean agreements is suspended.' The government believes that suspending the military agreement's effectiveness through the Cabinet meeting satisfies this condition.

Military to Install Loudspeakers First... Operation Depends on North Korea

North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un visiting the Academy of National Defense Science. / Photo by Korean Central News Agency

Military authorities are reportedly planning to install loudspeakers aimed at North Korea in some frontline units soon following the suspension of the military agreement's effectiveness. Although they will not operate immediately, the plan is to resume broadcasts instantly if North Korea escalates provocations, such as releasing more filth balloons.

The issue lies in the following scenario. Responsibility for any clash is likely to fall on whoever crosses the 'red line' first. On the night of the 2nd, North Korea announced a halt to filth balloon launches but stated that if leaflets are distributed from the South, they would retaliate "a hundredfold." They shifted the ball to the South for the next move. It is also possible that North Korea may resume provocations, citing the South's resumption of frontline military exercises, loudspeaker installations, or leaflet distribution as pretexts.

Some pro-North organizations are reportedly prepared to distribute additional leaflets. The government maintains a stance that it is difficult to request restraint. Following the Constitutional Court's ruling that the law banning leaflet distribution to North Korea is unconstitutional, the government prioritizes 'freedom of expression' and 'the North Korean people's right to know.' However, to avoid giving North Korea an excuse, it may quietly urge restraint or request undisclosed leaflet distribution behind the scenes.

A source said, "If leaflets are distributed publicly, North Korea cannot remain passive and will use that as a pretext for provocations," adding, "Since several organizations have distributed leaflets discreetly, it is necessary to ask some groups not to unnecessarily publicize their leaflet distribution."

Cho Han-bum, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, suggested that North Korea might deploy 'front organizations' to carry out the next provocation. He said, "North Korea may not have prepared such a scenario, but as our government mentioned the loudspeaker card, they seem to have backed down," calling it "a painful point for North Korea." He further predicted, "Since the government dismissed Kim Yo-jong's claim that the filth balloon launches were 'freedom of expression,' North Korea may use government-controlled front organizations as the main actors in the next provocation."