Anbosil convenes inter-agency meeting to discuss response
Possibility of discussing nullification of Sept 19 military agreement on 4th
Professor Park Wongon: "Not the stage to use loudspeakers toward North Korea"
Jang Ho-jin, Director of the National Security Office, is briefing on the expanded meeting of the Standing Committee of the National Security Council (NSC) held on the 2nd at the Yongsan Presidential Office building in Seoul. [Image source=Yonhap News]
The Presidential Office discussed the response direction and began preparing countermeasures on the morning of the 3rd following North Korea's suspension of the release of filth balloons. A senior official from the Presidential Office stated in a phone call with Asia Economy on the same day, "We will conduct an in-depth review of the North Korean position through a meeting with relevant ministries today and decide on the future response direction."
North Korea announced the temporary suspension of releasing filth balloons attached with trash and other materials the day before. Nearly 1,000 filth balloons have been released so far, and the government, judging this as an act that causes "threats and anxiety to our people," hinted at resuming loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North by stating, "We will immediately take measures that North Korea will find difficult to endure," which led North Korea to halt the provocations.
The National Security Office convened a meeting with vice-ministerial level officials from relevant ministries on the morning of the same day to analyze North Korea's response and changes, and began reviewing the possibility of resuming loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North. To resume loudspeaker broadcasts, the suspension of the September 19 Military Agreement must be in effect, and it is known that the government may discuss nullifying the September 19 Military Agreement at the Cabinet meeting on the 4th.
The Ministry of National Defense plans to resume loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North if the Panmunjom Declaration and the September 19 Military Agreement are abolished. This would be the first time in six years since April 2018 during the Moon Jae-in administration. The military has already introduced new loudspeakers, including 16 mobile loudspeakers and 24 fixed loudspeaker sets, at a cost of about 16 billion KRW. The audible range of the new loudspeakers is 8 to 10 km for mobile loudspeakers and 12 to 15 km for fixed loudspeakers. During the evening, when sound propagates well, broadcasts can reportedly be heard up to 30 km away.
Military May Resume Live Maneuvers and Live-Fire Drills
The military is also considering resuming live maneuvers and live-fire drills near the Military Demarcation Line to increase military pressure. At the Songjiho firing range on the East Coast, live-fire drills with the next-generation 230mm-class multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) Cheonmu, which has a maximum range of 80 km, are possible. If live-fire drills are conducted in the buffer zone, it is anticipated that North Korea may use this as a pretext to carry out 'land, sea, and air provocations.'
North Korea's backlash is also expected. North Korea is sensitive to loudspeakers that could cause internal unrest among its residents. Loudspeaker broadcasts mainly consist of content related to popular K-pop and Korean Wave, or candid information about the Kim Jong-un regime to North Korean residents. A North Korean soldier who defected across the Military Demarcation Line in 2017 said, "I decided to defect after listening to the loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North."
North Korea may respond with countermeasures such as releasing filth balloons again if domestic pro-North Korean groups send leaflets toward the North. Following last year's Constitutional Court ruling that declared the Anti-North Korean Leaflet Act (an amendment to the Inter-Korean Relations Development Act) unconstitutional, it is difficult to request restraint. Instead, if resident damage is expected, the police are considering restricting leaflet distribution under current laws.
Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies analyzed, "From a military perspective, North Korea's release of filth balloons is not something to strongly confront," adding, "It is not yet the stage to use loudspeakers toward the North."
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