Diverging US Reactions to Trump Guilty Verdict: "Adds Uncertainty to a Nail-Biter"

Diverging Views in US Media
WSJ: "Economy Is What Matters"
NYT: "May Alienate Youth and People of Color"

Former U.S. President Donald Trump is shaking up the presidential race after being found guilty in a criminal trial over allegations of 'hush money for a sexual misconduct scandal' on the 30th (local time), just over five months before the presidential election.

As the upcoming November election, which will be a 'return match' between former President Trump and current President Joe Biden, is shaping up to be a close contest with no clear winner, political circles and the media predict that this incident will become a variable that could somewhat influence voters' sentiments, given that Trump is the first former U.S. president in history to be found guilty of a 'felony.'

Most U.S. media outlets say it is still difficult to clearly gauge whether the guilty verdict itself will become the 'eye of the storm' that shakes up the election landscape or just a 'tempest in a teapot' that does not significantly sway voters' sentiments. Opinions differ somewhat on the intensity of the shockwave.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) described in an article titled "Trump's Guilty Verdict Shakes Up the 2024 Election" that the verdict adds an "unimaginable wild card" to the presidential race between Trump and Biden, who currently holds a narrow lead in battleground states that will decide the outcome in November.

However, WSJ also emphasized that the verdict does not seem likely to deal a major blow to former President Trump.

WSJ noted, "Now voters will make their own judgments," pointing out that Trump has overcome numerous scandals in the past, and Americans have become accustomed to the constant controversies surrounding him.

WSJ highlighted that before the 2016 election, Trump was embroiled in multiple scandals, including allegations of sexually inappropriate behavior toward several women, yet he overcame these and secured the presidency.

Furthermore, even as he faces multiple civil and criminal charges ahead of this election and frequently appears in court, Trump has rallied his supporters by vocally accusing his opponents of 'political persecution' and 'judicial weaponization,' easily securing the Republican presidential nomination with his characteristic confident rhetoric.

Republican strategist Scott Reed said, "During the past six weeks of the 'hush money for a sexual misconduct scandal' trial, another kind of jury?the voters in battleground states?have been watching Trump, and his support continues to grow," adding, "The deeper Trump gets into controversy, the more voters ignore the sensationalism."

WSJ also emphasized that the main driver of voters' decisions is the economy, noting that despite strong job growth and a booming stock market during Biden's administration, American voters feel the economy was better under Trump, as Biden has failed to curb inflation.

According to a recent joint survey by ABC News and Ipsos, WSJ reported that 14 percentage points more respondents trusted Trump over Biden on economic issues.

Susie Wiles, co-chair of Trump's campaign, told WSJ that the trial would not change voters' minds and that inflation and the economy would remain the top priorities.

The Trump campaign also cited internal polls, stating, "Voters in key battleground states have already made up their minds about this trial," and "Most voters, especially our supporters, believe this trial was politically motivated and that the guilty verdict is the result of a biased show trial."

On the other hand, The New York Times (NYT) in an article titled "Will This Verdict Matter?" predicted that based on recent polls, the verdict could influence the votes of young and non-white voters?groups Trump must win to secure victory in November.

NYT first noted that over the past decade, Trump has demonstrated political resilience by overcoming multiple legal risks that would have ended other politicians' careers, running for president three times, and that his loyal MAGA (Make America Great Again) base is unlikely to suddenly turn against him because of this guilty verdict.

However, NYT pointed out that among voters with lower loyalty to Trump, the verdict could have a significant impact.

In fact, a poll released by ABC News on the 5th showed that among respondents who support Trump, 4% said they would no longer support him if he were found guilty in the 'hush money for a sexual misconduct scandal' trial, and 16% said they would reconsider their support.

In a poll conducted last October by NYT and Siena College, 7% of Trump supporters said they would vote for President Biden if Trump were convicted in a criminal trial.

This trend was especially pronounced among young voters and people of color; 21% of young Trump supporters and 27% of Black supporters said they would switch their support to Biden if Trump were found guilty, NYT reported.

NYT emphasized that in the currently extremely close election, Trump desperately needs the support of young voters and people of color, including Black and Hispanic voters, who did not vote for him in the past, and that "anything could make a difference."

The Washington Post (WP) analyzed in an article titled "No One Knows How Trump's Guilty Verdict Will Affect the Election" that because this election is so close, even a small event could make a big difference, but predicting the outcome is difficult.

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign expects that the verdict will highlight Trump's legal risks, increasing distrust and disappointment among moderate voters, which could work in Biden's favor.

However, the campaign is cautious, as prematurely emphasizing the verdict could instead rally Trump's supporters, leading to an undesirable outcome for Biden.

Publicly, the Biden campaign commented immediately after the verdict, saying it "shows that no one is above the law." However, WP reported that campaign officials' unofficial response is that they do not expect the guilty verdict to fundamentally change the dynamics of the tight election race.