All Births and Deaths in All Cities and Provinces from 2045

Statistics Korea, Funeral Population Projection
Population Decline Begins in 16 Cities and Provinces After 15 Years

From 2045, it is expected that the number of deaths will exceed the number of births in all provinces and cities, including Sejong, leading to a natural population decline.

On the 28th, Statistics Korea announced the 'Future Population Projections by Province: 2022?2052' containing this information. Statistics Korea projected the future population by province from 2022 to 2052, reflecting recent trends in births, deaths, and population movement by province.

If the recent trends in population changes by province continue, based on the median projection, from 2045, all 17 provinces and cities including Sejong will experience a natural population decline where deaths outnumber births.

Until last year, Sejong was the only one among the 17 provinces and cities to show natural population growth, but in about 20 years, even Sejong is expected to see deaths surpass births.

The number of births in Sejong is projected to stagnate at around 3,000 to 4,000 annually until 2052, while the number of deaths is expected to increase from 2,000 in 2022 to 5,000 in 2052.

Considering population movement by province, the total population is expected to start declining from 2039 in 16 provinces and cities excluding Sejong.

As a result, compared to 2022, by 2052 the total population will decrease in 15 provinces and cities including Seoul (-1.49 million), Gyeongbuk (-460,000), Jeonbuk (-330,000), Gwangju (-290,000), and Jeonnam (-280,000).

In particular, Busan is expected to decrease from 3.3 million to 2.45 million, a drop of 850,000 (-25.8%), and Ulsan from 1.11 million to 830,000, a decrease of 290,000 (-25.7%). Daegu (-580,000) and Gyeongnam (-690,000) will also decline by 24.3% and 21.0%, respectively. On the other hand, Sejong is expected to increase by 160,000 (41.1%) and Gyeonggi by 120,000 (0.9%).

Due to continued low birth rates, a decrease in the working-age population (ages 15?64) is also expected to be unavoidable. Except for Sejong, the working-age population in all 16 provinces and cities is projected to decline by 2052 compared to 2022.

In particular, Ulsan’s working-age population is expected to halve, dropping from 810,000 to 410,000, a decrease of 400,000 (49.9%). Since 2015, Ulsan has experienced an outflow of young people due to the decline in the shipbuilding industry. In total, eight provinces and cities including Gyeongnam (-47.8%), Busan (-47.1%), Daegu (-46.9%), and Gyeongbuk (-45.0%) are expected to see their working-age populations decrease by more than 40%.

Meanwhile, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and over is expected to increase in all provinces and cities, while the youth population (ages 0?14) is expected to decrease in all provinces and cities.

Due to low birth rates and aging, the aging index, which represents the number of elderly people per 100 youth, is expected to exceed 100 in all provinces and cities by 2052. In 2022, 16 provinces and cities except Sejong (51.7) had an aging index over 100, but by 2052, Sejong is also expected to rise to 244.8.

The total dependency ratio, which is the number of youth and elderly dependents supported by 100 working-age people, is expected to exceed 100 in 10 provinces and cities including Jeonnam (127.0), Gyeongbuk (125.4), and Gyeongnam (118.9) by 2052. This means that the number of dependents will surpass the number of supporters.