[2nd Anniversary of Yoon's Inauguration] ① Rapid Weakening of Presidential Victory Coalition... "Politics Must Address National Concerns"

President Yoon's 2-Year Rule Seen Through Approval Ratings
Detailed Analysis of NBS Poll Trends

Over the course of two years in power, President Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating has been halved. The coalition that was the foundation of President Yoon's victory has rapidly weakened. President Yoon now faces the challenge of reviving the reform momentum and regaining the support of those who have turned away. Experts emphasize the need to achieve visible results on national issues such as livelihood concerns that resonate with the public.

On the 8th, Asia Economy analyzed the trends in nationwide indicator surveys (NBS) over the two years since President Yoon's inauguration. In the early days of his term, President Yoon maintained a solid approval rating in the 40-50% range. In the first survey after his inauguration, conducted in the third week of May 2022, his approval rating was 48%, followed by 54% in the first week of June and 49% in the third week of June. While expectations for the new administration played a role, the support was also upheld by centrist and conservative groups, with stable approval ratings ranging from the high 40s to mid-50s percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, including Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi Province.

However, in two recent surveys conducted after the April 10 general election defeat, President Yoon's approval rating dropped to 27%, marking the lowest point since his inauguration. Comparing the highest approval ratings in the early days of his term with the recent lowest ratings reveals a pronounced erosion of his support base.

A notable feature of the approval rating trend over the two years is the drop to the 30% range following the disciplinary action against former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok (currently leader of the Reform New Party) in July 2022. During this period, public support sharply declined. Subsequently, in September 2022, controversies such as the so-called ‘Nalrimyeon’ incident during his visit to the U.S. and public backlash against efforts to improve relations with Japan further lowered his approval ratings.

By age group, President Yoon received strong support from those aged 60 and above, and approval ratings ranged from the high 20s to 40% among those aged 40 and below. However, currently, positive approval ratings are lower than negative ratings in all age groups except those in their 70s. In particular, among those aged 40 and below, approval ratings have dropped to less than half compared to the early days of his term.

Looking at political leanings, progressive supporters once accounted for 36% (first week of June 2022) but now remain at single-digit levels, and centrist support has fallen from around 47% to 21%. Although conservative support still underpins his approval, it has declined from the 70% range to the 50% range. Experts suggest that the public opinion trend among conservatives should be closely monitored for the time being. Son Kyung-ho, senior researcher at Casetet, said, "The trend among conservatives will be a key focus going forward, more so than the decline among people in their 20s or centrists," adding, "If conservative support weakens as well, governing the country could become even more difficult."

How should the remaining three years of governance momentum be restored? Kim Bong-shin, director at Metavoice and a public opinion expert, said, "It is questionable whether governance can be carried out by relying on specific classes, age groups, regions, or political leanings. Now, governance must be centered on the public's concerns. In the past, the approach was to pressure specific groups such as labor unions, educators, and doctors by labeling them as cartels, but now it is necessary to focus on livelihood issues such as inflation."