"HBM Price Increase Continues Next Year... Accounting for Over 30% of DRAM Sales"

HBM Suppliers Raise Prices by 5-10%
Buyers Accept Price Increases Due to AI Impact
HBM Demand Growth Nears 200% This Year
HBM3E Era... Hynix and Samsung Respond

With the AI boom driving continuous growth in demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), forecasts indicate that HBM prices will continue to rise through next year. As a high-value-added product, HBM sales are expected to account for more than 30% of the total DRAM market by next year. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are making all-out efforts to supply HBM in response to this demand.

On the 7th, market research firm TrendForce stated, "The HBM market will show solid growth supported by significant price premiums and increasing capacity demand related to AI semiconductors," adding, "The selling price of HBM is about five times higher than that of Double Data Rate (DDR)5 DRAM, and this pricing, combined with AI semiconductor technology that increases HBM capacity in a single device, can significantly raise HBM's market share in the DRAM market by 2025."

TrendForce expects HBM's share of the total DRAM market by bit (capacity) to rise from 2% last year to 5% this year, surpassing 10% next year. In terms of sales, it is forecasted to increase from 8% last year to 21% this year, and exceed 30% next year. Since HBM is a high-value-added product, its sales share is expected to rise rapidly.

HBM demand growth is expected to approach 200% this year, with the possibility of doubling again next year. As demand rapidly increases, HBM prices are also expected to continue their upward trend next year. TrendForce anticipates that HBM suppliers will hold the upper hand in product price negotiations next year and achieve their desired outcomes.

Price negotiations for HBM next year have already begun. With limited DRAM production capacity next year, suppliers have preemptively raised HBM prices by 5-10%. TrendForce forecasts that HBM buyers are accepting continuous price increases due to their high confidence in AI demand projections.

TrendForce also pointed out that the yield of Through Silicon Via (TSV) for the 5th generation HBM product, HBM3E, is only 40-60%, indicating room for improvement. Additionally, since not all HBM suppliers have passed customer certification for HBM3E, buyers have no choice but to accept higher prices to secure superior products. These factors suggest that the upward trend in HBM prices will continue.

HBM3E is expected to be the main product in the HBM market next year. TrendForce stated, "HBM specification demands are shifting to HBM3E, and demand for 12-layer products is expected to increase," adding, "This change will increase HBM capacity per chip." Besides NVIDIA's B100 and GB200, new AI semiconductor products from AMD such as MI350 and MI375, expected to launch in the second half of the year, will use HBM3E 8-layer and 12-layer products.

SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, which hold over 90% market share in the HBM market, are focusing on expanding HBM production capacity to meet this demand. SK Hynix announced that it will advance the supply timing of the HBM3E 12-layer product from next year to the third quarter of this year. Samsung Electronics has revealed plans to start mass production within the second quarter.