[Opinion] The True Essence of the Crisis Facing the People Power Party

To act properly, one must see correctly. Right view (正見, seeing correctly) leads to right action (正業, proper behavior). The People Power Party's crushing defeat in the general election stemmed from failure at this very point. Because they could not see the situation clearly, the subsequent countermeasures failed to be effective. The degree was the problem, but the outcome was somewhat predictable.

What is the core of seeing correctly? It is the change in the landscape. The political terrain of Korean society has fundamentally shifted. In fact, this is not a recent development. It began about ten years ago. If we divide political tendencies into progressive and conservative, from around that time progressive-leaning voters clearly became the majority. Compared to the past when conservatives held the upper hand or were roughly equal, this is a fundamental change. Using proportional representation votes as a basis, I looked up data from the National Election Commission. In the 19th general election in 2012, conservatives (Saenuri Party, Liberty Forward Party) received 46.03%, and progressives (Democratic United Party, Unified Progressive Party) received 46.75%. There was little difference. The same was true in the 20th general election in 2016, when the Saenuri Party lost amid the so-called 'Jinbak controversy.' Conservatives (Saenuri Party) got 33.50%, and progressives (Democratic Party of Korea, Justice Party) got 32.77%. It was essentially a tie.

However, from the 21st general election in 2020, held after the 'Park Geun-hye impeachment,' things changed dramatically. Conservatives (Future Korea Party, Our Republican Party, etc.) received 41.54%, but progressives (Together Citizens' Party, Justice Party, Open Democratic Party, etc.) received 52.2%. The gap was 10.66 percentage points. In this recent general election, the gap widened further. Progressives (Democratic United Party, Green Justice Party, Innovation Party for Justice, New Future) received 54.78%, while conservatives (People's Future Party, Reform New Party, Liberty Unification Party) received 42.54%. The difference was 12.24 percentage points, an increase of 1.58 percentage points compared to the 21st general election. This shows the deepening 'progressive dominance' structure. Conservatives are clearly a 'minority.'

Moreover, demographic changes are not favorable to conservatives. The notion that those aged 60 and above lean conservative is outdated. The front line of the '386 generation,' who led the democratization movement, has already reached their mid-60s. The elderly population with strong conservative tendencies is itself declining. In addition, population decline and regional shrinkage are reducing local electoral districts, while urban districts are increasing. The crisis of the People Power Party is pressing and overlapping from multiple angles. Because of this, they should have broadened their support base to include centrists and even moderate progressives, but instead, they went in the opposite direction.

Yet, the People Power Party's response remains complacent. Following the last general election, it has become a 'Yangnam Party' (centered on Gangnam and Yeongnam regions). Despite strong warnings from voters four years ago, nothing has changed. Expecting victory under these circumstances is shameless and akin to looking for fish in a tree. There are many practical workers such as fighters, attackers, and functionaries, but except for former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, no one speaks of conservative philosophy. With values and philosophy vanished, no strategic minds, and no recognition of the crisis, there is no way to know what they intend to do or where they aim to go. Only the imperative to win fights exists. As the foundation crumbles, they try to cover up by recruiting popular figures from outside the party only during elections. The core is increasingly bruised. This is the current state of the People Power Party.