Musk: "AI Surpassing Human Ability Could Emerge as Early as Next Year"

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, suggested that the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) surpassing humans could happen as early as next year.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 8th (local time), Musk CEO stated in an interview with Nikolai Tangen, CEO of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, conducted on the social networking service X (formerly Twitter), "If we define Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as AI that is smarter than the smartest human, it could be possible as early as next year, within two years."

This is much earlier than Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, a leader in AI chip development, who recently predicted the emergence of AGI within 'five years.' Musk, classified as an AI optimist, expects AI capabilities to surpass all human abilities within the next five years.

Additionally, Musk CEO pointed out voltage transformer supply and securing power as constraints hindering AI development within 1 to 2 years. It has been noted that the current power grid cannot meet the increased demand due to AI technology advancements. He said, "Last year, there was a semiconductor constraint. People could not secure enough Nvidia chips," adding, "This year, it is shifting to power transformer supply."

Regarding his AI startup xAI's chatbot 'Grok,' he expressed confidence that "(the second version) will be better than ChatGPT-4" and expected training to be completed by May. Founded in July last year, xAI introduced Grok, a competitor to ChatGPT, by the end of the same year. Major foreign media, citing sources, mentioned that Musk CEO is attempting to raise billions of dollars from investors in the U.S., the Middle East, and Hong Kong to compete with OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT. Regarding the global competition in AI technology development, Musk predicted, "China will not fall behind the U.S."

On the same day, Musk CEO also revealed the lunar and Mars exploration plans of his private space company SpaceX. He said, "We will take people to the Moon within five years," and added, "The unmanned spacecraft Starship will reach Mars within five years, and humanity will land on Mars for the first time within seven years." However, this is much later than the originally mentioned landing date of 2026. The Starship spacecraft, developed by SpaceX to pioneer the Moon and Mars, succeeded in reaching orbit during its third Earth orbit test flight last month but disintegrated during descent.

Furthermore, Musk CEO expressed concerns about the aggressive moves of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers emphasizing cost-effectiveness. He said Chinese automakers are "the most competitive in the world" and predicted negative impacts on Tesla. Earlier, he had warned that "Chinese electric vehicle companies will crush competitors without trade barriers." Regarding the union strike in Sweden, he suggested that "the storm seems to have passed," indicating that the worst situation is over.