"US 1-Year Expected Inflation at 3%"

New York Fed Survey
3-Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Rise to 2.9%

U.S. consumers' inflation expectations for one year ahead remained steady at around 3%.

According to a survey conducted on March by the New York Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) involving 1,300 consumers, the median expected inflation rate one year from now held steady at 3%, the same level as the previous month.

The inflation expectation for three years ahead rose from 2.7% to 2.9%. Meanwhile, the five-year inflation expectation declined from 2.9% to 2.6% during the same period.

Consumers anticipated significant price increases in gasoline, groceries, medical expenses, college tuition, and rent one year from now. The expected housing price increase rate for one year remained at 3% for six consecutive months.

The survey results indicated that consumers still expect both short- and long-term inflation to exceed the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

However, the number of consumers expecting difficulties in repaying debt in the future increased. 12.9% of respondents said they might fail to repay debt in the next three months, marking the highest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.