Rising Risk of Armed Conflict in the Middle East: "Iran to Retaliate for Consulate Bombing"

Iran Points to Israel Behind Consulate Bombing
"Military Officer Killed... Need to Save Face Amid Citizens' Scrutiny"

Jang Ji-hyang, head of the Middle East Research Center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, predicted that the level of armed conflict in the Middle East will increase in the short term following the bombing of the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

On the 3rd, during KBS Radio's 'Jeonggyeok Sisa,' Director Jang said, "The level of conflict will rise in the short term," adding, "Iran has declared retaliation and punishment against Israel." He continued, "The deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite unit of Iran's highest religious leader, was killed in this attack," and predicted, "Since the situation is being watched by their own citizens, Iran will have to take retaliatory action to save face."

On the 1st (local time), rescue workers conducted rescue operations at the Iranian consulate building in Damascus Governorate, Syria, which was destroyed by an Israeli military airstrike. Several people, including senior officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), died in the airstrike.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 1st (local time) around noon, the consulate building next to the Iranian embassy in southwestern Damascus, Syria, was hit by a missile attack. Several people, including senior IRGC officials, were killed. Iran pointed to Israel as the perpetrator behind the attack and warned of a strong response, but Israel justified the strike in interviews with media outlets such as CNN, claiming it was a "military facility disguised as a consulate." CNN described the attack on the Iranian consulate as "the incident that has most escalated the risk of widening the Gaza conflict outside Gaza since the war began six months ago."

However, Director Jang noted that based on past patterns of localized conflicts in the Middle East, while the level of armed conflict will increase in the short term due to retaliatory attacks, Iran is unlikely to want to escalate the conflict further. He said, "Iran will not attack immediately," and predicted, "They will leak predictable target facilities and carry out attacks of a limited scale to create an exit strategy implying 'Israel should suffer this much.'" He added, "Israel is likely aware of this," and claimed, "The U.S. and Iran are also exchanging information about strike locations in advance to prevent escalation, maintaining a state of localized conflict."

Regarding the background of Israel's offensive, he cited hostility toward Iran. Director Jang explained, "If you ask Israel who their enemy is, they say 'First Iran, second Iran, and third Iran,'" and added, "Iran supports the Assad dictatorship regime in Syria, which borders Israel, and the IRGC freely moves in and out of Syria as if it were their own home." He further stated, "Regarding the consulate bombing, Israel's position differs from Iran's," and said, "Israel claims that it bombed a military facility, not the consulate building itself. If they had bombed the consulate, it would be a complete violation of international law, but attacking an armory or weapons facility is a different matter."