Kookum Center: "India to Achieve High Growth Amid Global Economic Slowdown"

"Similar to the Boom Period with 8% Growth in the 2000s"

Amid expectations of a global economic slowdown, the Indian economy is projected to continue its high growth.

According to a recent report titled "India's Economic Growth Drivers and Key Risk Assessment" by the International Finance Center, India's economic growth rate for the 2023-2024 fiscal year is estimated to reach the high 7% range.

This is due to India's quarterly growth rates showing strong performance for three consecutive quarters in the 8% range (Q1 8.2% → Q2 8.1% → Q3 8.4%). The Indian government recently revised its growth forecast upward from 7.3% to 7.6%. The Indian fiscal year runs from April to March of the following year, with the first quarter of the 2023-2024 fiscal year corresponding to April-June of last year.

The Indian stock index also continued its upward trend, hitting record highs. The NIFTY50, India's representative stock index, rose 20% last year and added another 1.7% this year, reaching an all-time high on March 7. The CDS premium, which indicates national credit risk, stood at 50.02 for a 5-year maturity, approaching historic lows, while foreign exchange reserves hit a record high of $642.5 billion.

The growth drivers are also solid. India, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, surpassed China last year to become the world's most populous country. Its median age is 29.5 years, significantly younger compared to other emerging countries, which contributes to its large domestic market potential. Consumption accounts for nearly two-thirds of India's economy, supported by the world's largest population, low median age, abundant labor force, and rising incomes, all of which underpin consumer market growth.

Government policy support is also robust. The Indian government aims to achieve a $5 trillion economy by the 2026-2027 fiscal year. A key driver of this goal is increasing the manufacturing sector's share of GDP from the current 17% to 25%. India has already become the world's second-largest mobile phone manufacturer by volume. Furthermore, global companies prefer India as an alternative country to reduce supply chain disruption risks caused by US-China tensions, which is expected to bring significant benefits during the global supply chain restructuring process.

The International Finance Center stated, "The market views today's Indian economy as similar to the boom period in the mid-2000s when India achieved average growth rates above 8%," adding, "Despite the global economic slowdown, there is no disagreement that the Indian economy will continue its high growth."