North Korea-Russia Advocacy, UN Expert Panel Term Ends
North Korea-Russia Trade Transactions Expected to Increase
The termination of the expert panel under the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea sanctions due to Russia's veto is expected to be recorded as a painful event for South Korea, which has been confronting North Korea's nuclear and missile development. With the effectiveness of sanctions against North Korea increasingly undermined by the protection of China and Russia, concerns are rising that the disappearance of even the official monitoring body within the UN could lead to a full-scale security crisis surrounding the Korean Peninsula.
The UN Security Council established the North Korea Sanctions Committee after North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006 and formed the expert panel following the second nuclear test in 2009. Over the past 15 years, the expert panel has investigated violations of North Korea sanctions and reported them to the international community. In April last year, it revealed that North Korea has been steadily producing nuclear materials, and in March this year, it disclosed that North Korea earned about 4 trillion won over six years through cyber theft.
South Korea and the United States are expected to create a separate monitoring system to continue overseeing the implementation of North Korea sanctions after the panel's term ends at the end of next month. On the 28th (local time), Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, emphasized in a briefing that sanctions against North Korea remain valid even after the panel's activities end, stating, "We will obtain information on North Korea's illicit weapons development and disclose that information to the public and other Security Council members."
However, with the disappearance of the official monitoring body within the UN, criticism that the North Korea sanctions regime has been damaged is inevitable. In particular, Russia's veto and China's abstention in the vote to extend the panel's term signify that conflicts among the five permanent Security Council members (the U.S., China, Russia, the U.K., and France) over North Korea sanctions have intensified. While Russia has consistently defended North Korea, this year it has become more overt, arguing that all North Korea sanctions should have sunset clauses and be limited to one-year temporary measures.
In fact, there have been many criticisms that North Korea sanctions have already become ineffective. The sanctions resolutions prohibit the import of materials, goods, technologies that can be used for weapons development, and luxury items into North Korea, but North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un has openly flaunted violations multiple times as if mocking them. Earlier this month, North Korea's Korean Central Television revealed Kim riding in a Maybach, a German Mercedes-Benz car with a domestic market price exceeding 200 million won.
Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly gifted Kim a luxury sedan 'Aurus' last month, and covert arms deals continue. In this situation, with even the most authoritative panel reports disappearing, trade violations of sanctions between China, Russia, and North Korea are likely to increase further.
The biggest beneficiary is naturally North Korea. For Kim Jong-un, the efforts to strengthen relations with Russia have now borne fruit. With weakened sanctions monitoring, transactions involving electronics, seafood, and consumer goods are expected to become easier immediately, and in the mid to long term, financial transactions and procurement of materials for weapons development could also gain more leeway.
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