[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Move to Launch Additional Reconnaissance Satellite Next Month

Many Political Anniversaries Next Month Including Taeyangjeol and Military Founding Day
Movements Such as Vehicle and Material Placement at Seohae Satellite Launch Site

There is interest in whether North Korea will launch additional reconnaissance satellites around next month's political anniversaries. Military authorities have detected activities related to the additional launch of military satellites and are closely monitoring the situation.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 29th, a military official stated, "South Korea and U.S. intelligence agencies are continuously tracking and monitoring North Korea's military activities in close cooperation," adding, "Although there are preparations for additional military satellite launches by North Korea, there are currently no signs that a launch is imminent."

Intelligence agencies are focusing on the West Sea Satellite Launching Station located in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, North Korea. Movements such as personnel, vehicle, and material deployments have been continuously detected so far. Typically, North Korea installs screens several weeks before launching a satellite to prevent reconnaissance assets from detecting the process of erecting the propulsion system on the launch pad. However, such movements have not yet been observed.

However, next month includes major North Korean anniversaries such as the Day of the Sun (May 15), the birthday of Chairman Kim Il-sung, and the founding anniversary of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (May 25). North Korea may attempt to launch reconnaissance satellites around these anniversaries to achieve military objectives. Whenever North Korea launches reconnaissance or other artificial satellites, it has notified Japan in advance, which is responsible for adjusting navigation warnings in the Western Pacific region, including waters near the Korean Peninsula, according to the World Wide Navigational Warning Service (WWNWS). Notification may also be given shortly before the launch.

North Korea launched its first military reconnaissance satellite, Manrikkyeong-1, on November 21 last year and declared plans to launch three more this year. Since it launched the first satellite about ten days earlier than South Korea, there is speculation that the second satellite may also be launched early. South Korea launched its first reconnaissance satellite on December 2 last year.

A military official commented on the possibility of additional provocations, saying, "The North Korean military is currently conducting routine training, and South Korea and the U.S. are preparing for the possibility of provocations."