[How About This Book] How War Changed the Global Energy Strategy

The Ukraine war, which began with Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022, and has continued for over two years, has reshaped the global energy market. Especially intertwined with the climate crisis humanity faces, it has altered the course of civilization. This is because it has put a brake on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

Amid the ongoing war, a book titled "World Energy War Map" has been published, offering insights into the energy strategies of countries worldwide and the shaken responses to the climate crisis. The author, Hirata Takeo, is the director of the Resource Strategy Research Institute at Waseda University in Japan. He examines the energy policies and strategies of Russia, the United States, China, the European Union (EU), India, Australia, Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Essentially, he provides a comprehensive overview of global energy strategies, as the Ukraine war involves almost the entire world.

Although the belligerents are only Russia and Ukraine, the war's origin in Ukraine's attempt to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) inevitably involves the United States and Europe. Russia, as a member of OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC cooperating countries), is also connected to the Middle East. China and India are approaching Russia, which has lost the European market, to secure energy at lower costs.

The author explores what strategies Japan, which has the lowest energy self-sufficiency rate among the Group of Seven (G7), should adopt in the future through the lens of each country's energy strategy. This also offers implications for South Korea, which, like Japan, is resource-poor and has a low energy self-sufficiency rate.

The Ukraine war is a territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine, but for all other countries in the world, it signifies a war for securing energy. This is because Russia, which initiated the war, was the world's second-largest oil producer and exporter and the second-largest natural gas producer and largest exporter as of 2020. The nature of this energy war became evident immediately after the war broke out, with a surge in European natural gas prices, accompanied by soaring prices of crude oil and coal, the main culprits of carbon emissions. The entire world suffered from severe inflation.

The author fundamentally attributes Russia's ability to provoke the war to its energy resources. "Since 2000, the Putin regime, which has continuously held power, has expanded its global influence through its energy strategy."

The author examines each country's energy strategy from the perspective of the '3Es': Energy Security, Economic Efficiency, and Environment (global warming). Among EU member states, Germany is given a separate chapter to analyze its current situation. Germany is not only the strongest country in the EU but also has a unique relationship with Russia, making its energy strategy the most shaken after the Ukraine war.

Before the Ukraine war, Germany sought economic benefits by receiving cheap and stable natural gas supplies from Russia. Thanks to Russian natural gas, Germany prioritized addressing global warming, i.e., the climate crisis, among the 3Es. It was indeed a leading country in climate crisis measures. However, after the war, securing natural gas became an emergency, and facing an economic crisis due to inflation, Germany's energy strategy changed drastically. After the outbreak, coal-fired power plants were restarted, and the nuclear phase-out policy, steadily pursued since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, was also shaken.

The author helps readers understand by mentioning historical events that were important turning points in past energy strategies. Germany's special energy relationship with Russia began with the inauguration of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) government under Willy Brandt in 1969. The Brandt administration sought to improve relations with East Germany, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe through its "Ostpolitik," and in 1970, West Germany and the Soviet Union signed their first natural gas export contract.

The book does not examine history comprehensively but focuses on the historical background relevant to each country's energy strategy.

In Japan's case, the 1854 Treaty of Peace and Amity between the United States and Japan, signed by Commodore Matthew Perry, was a turning point for the development of Japan's energy industry. One of the conditions the United States demanded when signing the treaty was the opening of ports to supply materials for ships and whaling vessels. The United States was undergoing the Industrial Revolution and needed kerosene, whale oil, to operate factories. It also demanded the supply of coal, used as fuel for ships and whaling vessels, in addition to water and food. The treaty with the United States led to a significant increase in Japan's coal production. Japan's coal production, which was 2 million tons in 1888, surged to 10 million tons by 1902. This enabled not only self-sufficiency but also exports to Southeast Asia. The author analyzes that Japan's modernization was possible because the US-Japan treaty enabled self-sufficiency in coal, the key energy source at the time.

Some content may already be familiar to those who have been following international news since the Ukraine war began. However, as the war surpasses two years, this book is valuable for providing a clear summary of the post-war international situation.

The author emphasizes that although countries' energy strategies may focus on energy security in the short term due to the Ukraine war, the ultimate goal should be the simultaneous achievement of the 3Es.

After the Ukraine war, countries' responses to the climate crisis have diverged into two major directions: some increased fossil fuel use again to secure immediate energy, while others accelerated the transition to renewable energy to reduce dependence on Russia. Thus, when closing the book, one wonders how the Ukraine war will ultimately be recorded as an event influencing climate crisis responses in the distant future.

World Energy War Map | Written by Hirata Takeo | Translated by Yang Ha-eun | 488 pages | 25,000 KRW