[General Election Battleground]② Nakdonggang Belt All-Out Battle... Verbal Slips Decide Victory or Defeat

People Power Party Launches Full-Scale Offensive with Kim Tae-ho, Seo Byung-su, and Cho Hae-jin
Democratic Party Struggles to Defend Seats Centered on Incumbent Lawmakers

Three weeks before the general election, a fierce battle is unfolding along the Nakdong River belt that flows through Busan, Gimhae, and Yangsan. The votes in a total of 10 constituencies are expected to be decided by 'controversial remarks.'

The Nakdong River belt includes a total of 10 constituencies: Buk-gu (Gap and Eul), Gangseo-gu, Sasang-gu, Saha-gu (Gap and Eul) in Busan, and Gimhae-si (Gap and Eul), Yangsan-si (Gap and Eul). Although located in the Yeongnam region, it has been a stronghold for the progressive camp. In Buk-gu Gap and Gangseo-gu Gap of Busan, Saha-gu Gap, Gimhae-si Gap and Eul, and Yangsan-si Eul, incumbent Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) lawmakers Jeon Jae-su, Choi In-ho, Min Hong-cheol, Kim Jeong-ho, and Kim Du-kwan respectively hold seats. The People Power Party (PPP) has literally poured its assets into reclaiming these constituencies. The PPP redeployed veteran lawmakers such as five-term Seo Byung-soo in Buk-gu Gap, three-term Cho Hae-jin in Gimhae-si Eul, and three-term Kim Tae-ho in Yangsan-si Eul to the Nakdong River belt.

The increase of one seat in the Nakdong River belt due to electoral district adjustments is also a variable. On the 29th of last month, the National Assembly passed a redistricting bill in a plenary session that divided Busan’s Buk-gu Gap and Gangseo-gu Gap and Eul into Buk-gu Gap, Buk-gu Eul, and Gangseo-gu. The PPP placed Park Seong-hoon, a former vice minister of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and former Yongsan Presidential Office official, in Buk-gu Eul, and incumbent lawmaker Kim Do-eup in Gangseo-gu. The DPK utilized local public officials by nominating former Busan Buk-gu mayor Jeong Myeong-hee and former Busan deputy mayor Byeon Seong-wan to Buk-gu Eul and Gangseo-gu respectively.

Despite deploying veterans... the 'incumbent wall' remains high

The constituency currently engaged in a neck-and-neck battle is Sasang-gu, Busan. According to a survey conducted on the 12th and 13th of this month by MetaVoice commissioned by JTBC, PPP candidate Kim Dae-sik leads DPK candidate Bae Jae-jung by 40% to 39% within the margin of error. The trend is unfavorable for the PPP. According to a survey conducted by Yeoronjojakkkot on the 14th and 15th of last month, support for the PPP candidate was 41.5%, while the DPK had 33.7%. Sasang-gu was a conservative stronghold where PPP lawmaker Jang Je-won, who is not running this election, served three terms, but the PPP’s candidate selection appears to be influencing voter sentiment. In Yeoronjojakkkot’s survey on the next suitable PPP candidate, former Sasang-gu mayor Song Sook-hee received 37.2%, and candidate Kim received 11.9%, but the PPP decided to nominate Kim as the sole candidate. Former mayor Song strongly opposed the party’s decision, even shaving his head in front of the central party office in Yeouido, Seoul.

The PPP’s redeployment of veteran lawmakers has been underwhelming except for Yangsan-si Eul. Even in Yangsan-si Eul, results flip-flop depending on the survey. According to a survey conducted by Korea Gallup on the 11th and 12th of this month commissioned by JoongAng Ilbo, lawmaker Kim Tae-ho led with 45% against Kim Du-kwan’s 41%. However, a survey conducted by MetaVoice on the 12th and 13th commissioned by JTBC showed Kim Du-kwan at 45% and Kim Tae-ho at 38%. In other constituencies, incumbent DPK lawmakers maintain strong support. In the same MetaVoice survey, Jeon Jae-su of Buk-gu Gap recorded 47% support against Seo Byung-soo’s 38%, and Kim Jeong-ho of Gimhae-si Eul had 49% support against Cho Hae-jin’s 33%.

Even in ruling party lawmakers’ constituencies, incumbents show no signs of vulnerability. According to a survey conducted by Yeoronjojakkkot on the 28th and 29th of last month, PPP lawmaker Cho Kyung-tae in Saha-gu Eul, Busan, led with 56% support against Lee Jae-sung’s 23%. This survey was conducted before Cho was finalized as the candidate, yet the support gap was more than double. In Yangsan-si Gap, PPP lawmaker Yoon Young-seok showed strength. According to a survey conducted by the Korea Social Opinion Institute (KSOI) on the 4th and 5th of last month commissioned by MBC Gyeongnam, Yoon recorded 50% support against Lee Jae-young’s 32.6%. Since the electoral districts of Buk-gu Eul and Gangseo-gu, where incumbent Kim Do-eup was active, were recently adjusted, it is necessary to observe further polling trends.

Voter sentiment shaken by controversial remarks... Ruling party's 'Jang Ye-chan', opposition's 'Yang Moon-seok'

Former People Power Party Youth Supreme Council member Jang Ye-chan, whose nomination for Busan Suyeong District was canceled due to a 'controversial remark' scandal, wipes tears during a press conference held at the Busan City Council in Yeonje District, Busan, on the afternoon of the 18th. Former Youth Supreme Council member Jang announced his independent candidacy. [Image source=Yonhap News]

The direction of voter sentiment in these constituencies hinges on 'controversial remarks.' In the Yeongnam region including the Nakdong River belt, voter sentiment was shaken by the controversy over remarks made by former youth supreme council member Jang Ye-chan, whose nomination for Busan Suyeong-gu was canceled. According to a survey conducted by MetaVoice on the 12th and 13th commissioned by JTBC, DPK lawmaker Choi in Saha-gu Gap, Busan, led with 50% support against PPP candidate Lee Seong-gwon’s 35%, showing DPK strength. In a survey conducted by Yeoronjojakkkot on the 13th and 14th of last month, support for the DPK candidate was 41.7%, and for the PPP candidate 38.8%. Within a month of Jang’s controversial remarks, the gap widened from just 2.9 percentage points to 15 percentage points. Meanwhile, Jang Ye-chan has expressed his intention to run as an independent in Busan Suyeong-gu, drawing attention to the potential impact on the Nakdong River belt.

The DPK is not free from controversy over remarks either. The Nakdong River belt is a representative region with a pro-Roh Moo-hyun inclination, as it includes the former President Roh Moo-hyun’s residence in Gimhae-si and former President Moon Jae-in’s residence in Yangsan-si. However, the DPK nominated Yang Moon-seok, who wrote a media column comparing the late President Roh to a 'defective product,' in Ansan-si Gap, Gyeonggi Province. Furthermore, it was revealed that on February 15, 2007, Yang wrote a column in the media outlet Nobo, stating, "Looking at the current (Roh Moo-hyun) administration’s behavior, it resembles the process of the 1998 Japan-Korea delayed negotiations," and likened the late President Roh to a 'masked American.'

[Image source=Yonhap News]

DPK leader Lee Jae-myung took a reserved stance on Yang’s remarks, saying, "Whether to hold him accountable is for the people to judge," but opposition is mounting in various places. Kim Boo-kyum, DPK’s co-chairman of the election committee, appeared on CBS Radio’s 'Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show' the day before and said, "(Yang’s remarks) crossed the line," adding, "We have requested a re-examination of Yang."