Will Gyeonggi Really Improve... News Sentiment Index Rising for 2 Consecutive Months

Bank of Korea News Sentiment Index Hits Highest Level in Over Two Years

Export containers are being loaded onto a ship at Busan North Port. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

The public's economic improvement expectations have reached their highest level in 2 years and 2 months. This is attributed to the recent improvement in export conditions centered on semiconductors, as well as the slowdown in this year's inflation rate compared to last year, which has raised expectations for a base interest rate cut.

According to the Bank of Korea's Economic Statistics System on the 16th, the news sentiment index currently stands at 109.13 this month. The index has risen for two consecutive months following last month. This is the highest monthly figure since December 2021, when it recorded 111.83.

The Bank of Korea's news sentiment index quantifies economic sentiment appearing in economic news articles. It is an experimental statistic introduced to utilize various data sources such as big data, and an index above 100 indicates that the economic sentiment of businesses or households has improved compared to the past.

The news sentiment index has been steadily rising since the second half of last year. Analysts suggest this trend is related to the improvement in Korea's economy centered on exports since the latter half of last year.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea's exports in February amounted to 52.41 billion dollars, an increase of 4.8% compared to the same month last year. Korea's monthly exports turned positive in October last year and have continued to rise for five consecutive months.

Korean exports are being driven by semiconductors. Semiconductor exports last month reached 9.9 billion dollars, a 66.7% increase compared to last year. This growth rate is the highest since October 2017 (+69.6%).

In particular, memory semiconductor exports in February amounted to 6.08 billion dollars, recording a growth rate of 108.1%, significantly surpassing the average for all semiconductors. This is due to price increases from production cuts and strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors. Semiconductor exports have continued to improve this year and are expected to lead Korea's economic recovery.

The recent slowdown in consumer price inflation, which had sharply risen until last year, is also positive. This year's consumer price inflation rate is around 3%. The decline in inflation has raised expectations for a base interest rate cut by the central bank and has influenced the rise in the economic sentiment index.