[General Election Outlook] ③ Lee Taeksu "Democratic Party 145 Seats, People Power Party 135 Seats Forecast"

This General Election Mirrors the 2016 Election Tightly
Support for Joguk Innovation Party Unlikely to Wane Easily
Ruling Party Presents Future Vision, Opposition Emphasizes Unity

Lee Taek-su, CEO of Realmeter, is a survey expert who has conducted public opinion polls for over 20 years. Having experienced various elections, he is more familiar with public opinion trends than anyone else. On the 13th, we met him for an hour at the Asia Economy conference room in Chungmuro, Jung-gu, Seoul. "I came after taking medicine because I have a bad cold," said CEO Lee, accurately citing various figures while looking at the reference materials he brought.

Is the recent trend in public opinion polls different compared to past general elections?

It is similar. The fact that constituency elections are heading toward a two-party contest resembles the 2016 election. At that time, the general election results were 123 (Democratic Party of Korea) to 122 (Saenuri Party), and this general election is also expected to be as tight as that.

Are the two major parties currently forming a tight competition?

Yes. The third parties will take at most 20 seats. There are 280 seats left. The Democratic Party will get about 145 seats, and the People Power Party about 135 seats.

Lee Taek-su, CEO of Realmeter, predicted that the ruling and opposition parties would engage in a tight contest. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Why do you predict it that way?

Looking at party approval ratings and the trend of regime judgment, that is the case. Reviewing past general election results, there was a hidden opposition vote. It was the same for both conservatives and progressives. That is why the three major broadcasters have never accurately predicted the number of seats for the ruling and opposition parties in exit polls. Election forecasts have generally overestimated the ruling party. Especially since the current administration is a 'prosecutor regime,' the shy opposition vote may be greater than in the past. The regime judgment sentiment remains strong.

Has the Democratic Party's support weakened recently due to nomination aftereffects?

There were many more nomination controversies in the Democratic Party over the past month. It is difficult to make accurate predictions in such situations. In actual polls, it is important how to capture the shy opposition vote among independents or non-respondents. Depending on the survey method, the current People Power Party approval rating appears similar whether by phone survey or ARS survey. However, the Democratic Party's approval rating varies with changes in the floating voter base.

Is the past two weeks the only time in the last year that the People Power Party's approval rating surpassed the Democratic Party's?

Yes. Due to conflicts during the nomination process, which can be described as chaotic, there was much more negative news about the Democratic Party. Then, the decline stopped when former Secretary-General Lim Jong-seok remained. The People Power Party definitely had a primary convention effect. During the primaries, about three candidates per constituency actively encouraged poll responses, but once the candidate was decided, the enthusiasm inevitably slackened.

Which generation should we pay attention to in this general election?

It is definitely the 2030 generation. The 4050 generation leans progressive, and the 6070 generation leans conservative. The 2030 generation is the swing voter. According to last week's Realmeter survey data, among those in their 20s, People Power Party had 42%, and the Democratic Party 35.8%. It is analyzed that some supporters who left following Representative Lee Jun-seok returned due to the Han Dong-hoon effect. On the other hand, among those in their 30s, the Democratic Party had 45.9%, and People Power Party 37.7%. The key is how much the 2030 generation will turn out to vote. (Realmeter survey commissioned by Energy Economy, March 7-8. Refer to the Election Commission.)

Representative Lee analyzed that the People Power Party's approval rating has only surpassed the Democratic Party in the past two weeks over the last year, indicating that the sentiment for regime judgment remains strong. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

Will the voter turnout exceed 60% in this general election?

There is a possibility. If voters feel that the outcome could be decided by their vote, turnout will increase. The gap in approval ratings is smaller than in the 2020 21st general election, and with a two-party system, a tight contest will unfold.

What about the centrist voter trend?

Well, there is no leading force for a third power in constituencies. The centrist voters are almost evenly split. With the emergence of Han Dong-hoon as the emergency committee chairman, the structure has shifted from Yoon Seok-youl versus Lee Jae-myung to future power versus future power. It is clear that Chairman Han brought the effect of moving from retrospective voting to prospective voting.

Despite ongoing judicial risks for Representative Lee Jae-myung, his approval rating does not seem to change much. What do you think is the reason?

In the past year, the People Power Party's approval rating surpassed the Democratic Party's for two weeks. When a detention warrant was requested for Representative Lee, he faced difficulties, but when it was rejected in the National Assembly, his approval rating recovered. This pattern continued. Ultimately, until the court ruling is made, the issue temporarily sinks below the surface, and approval ratings return to their original state. It is a kind of learning effect.

What is your view on the Han Dong-hoon effect?

With the emergence of Han Dong-hoon as emergency committee chairman, Kim Geon-hee has largely disappeared from the media. The regime judgment sentiment and frame have weakened. The nature of the general election has changed significantly. It also offset much of the Lee Jun-seok effect. It changed the atmosphere to one where it is worth trying. Rather than the possibility of rising enough to overwhelm the Democratic Party by one person, the election was more often swayed by which side performed worse or made gaffes.

Was the public opinion trend one month before the general election similar to the final election results or different?

Not very different. Among 254 constituencies, 30 to 40 are tight races. The basic base is a 135 to 145 structure, but a 3% swing can change 10 to 20 seats. General elections are different from presidential elections and are difficult to predict.

What variables could shake up the situation going forward?

Mistakes in speech have always occurred, and the issue that has driven the president's and People Power Party's approval ratings is the medical school quota problem. Now even medical professors have started collective action. If any problems arise in the remaining 20 days, it could act as a negative factor for the ruling party. This part needs to be watched carefully.

Representative Lee predicted that the support rate for the Joguk Innovation Party would not easily decline. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

What do you think about the Joguk Innovation Party? Its approval rating is close to 20%?

In ARS surveys, it has even exceeded 20%. Regarding the People Power Party's criticism of the 'Unified Progressive Party color theory,' it is clear that conservative-leaning supporters within the Democratic Party are wary. The Joguk Innovation Party, which can be seen as a second Democratic Party, is experiencing a kind of trickle-down effect. It plays the role of absorbing supporters flowing out from the Democratic Party. It also has a brand effect. Parties cannot include personal names, but having the noun 'Joguk' (Patriotism) works as an advantage. It means innovating Joguk and innovating the Republic of Korea.

What will be the relationship between the Democratic Party and the Joguk Innovation Party?

The Democratic Party seems to have judged that it is better to be close. About 20% of progressive voters feel that the court rulings against former Minister Cho Kuk's family are too harsh. This includes the Chae Sang-byeong case and people who feel that President Yoon Seok-youl and Emergency Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon's standards are unfair. In that sense, regardless of judicial decisions, these voters politically want to give a pass, feeling that enough is enough.

Are you saying the approval rating is not likely to easily subside?

Yes. There is demand for a third party, but the Reform Innovation Party or New Future Party are too weak.

Is the rise of the Joguk Innovation Party positive from the Democratic Party's perspective?

Currently, yes. That is why Representative Lee Jae-myung met with Representative Cho Kuk. If the total seats of progressive parties exceed 150 in the general election, it could be evaluated as an opposition victory, so there is no reason to distance or attack. They may run complementary campaigns.

What do you think the ruling and opposition parties should do to maintain or reverse the trend?

For the Democratic Party, it is important to prevent division and unify as much as possible. For the People Power Party, it is important to present a future vision and to translate policy visions like livelihood forums into realistic policies suited to local areas.