[Polpol News] 'Nomination Turmoil' Ends... Will Democratic Party Support Rally?

'Democratic Party Leads Again' in Nationwide Poll
Emergence of Joguk Innovation Party and Supporter Attrition Pose Challenges for People Power Party

After experiencing a nomination turmoil, the support rate for the Democratic Party of Korea, which had been weak, is on the rise. Although the ruling party still maintains an advantage, interpretations range from the Jo Guk Innovation Party playing a supportive role for the Democratic Party's approval ratings to analyses suggesting that successive adverse events have weakened the cohesion of the ruling party's support base.

Looking at the key data from nationwide election opinion polls compiled and announced by the Central Election Commission's Central Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee on the 13th, changes are detected in nationwide polls. Among 17 nationwide polls conducted in the first week of March, the People Power Party ranked first in 12, while the Democratic Party ranked first in 5. Among these, in 4 polls, the People Power Party led the Democratic Party beyond the margin of error, and in 1 poll, the Democratic Party was ahead of the People Power Party. Polls showing the Democratic Party leading in nationwide surveys have reappeared.

Of course, the overall situation can still be seen as favoring the People Power Party. However, this trend differs from last week. In all 7 nationwide polls conducted in the fifth week of February, the People Power Party ranked first. Among these, 4 polls showed the People Power Party leading beyond the margin of error. Within a week, the situation shifted from a People Power Party dominance to a close contest.

Regarding the change in public opinion, the political circles mainly point to two factors: the emergence of the Jo Guk Innovation Party and the loosening of the People Power Party's support base.

First, the political circles view the Jo Guk Innovation Party, founded by former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, as playing a kind of breakwater role by retaining Democratic Party supporters disappointed by the nomination controversy. With the emergence of the Jo Guk Innovation Party advocating 'District seats for the Democratic Party, proportional representation for the Jo Guk Innovation Party,' Democratic Party supporters have been able to consolidate, at least in terms of district seats. Additionally, as the Democratic Party's nomination controversy, which had been called a nomination turmoil, moves toward its final stages, there is an interpretation that the defecting supporters are returning.

On the other hand, the People Power Party's support base, which had shown consolidation in January and February, has shown signs of loosening due to adverse events. Kim Bong-shin, director of Metavoice, analyzing the recent loosening of the People Power Party's support base, pointed out, "The issue of expanding medical school quotas lasted long, leading to fatigue over the issue, and the controversy over the departure of Lee Jong-seop, former Minister of National Defense and current Ambassador to Australia, escalated into a controversy over the nation's dignity, becoming a negative factor." He added, "The ruling party's nominations, which had been quietly well-managed, ultimately were neither a shake-up nor inspiring, as the pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Seok-yeol faction) received most of the nominations, leading to expressed disappointment."

For detailed election survey results, please refer to the Central Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee's website.