[General Election Outlook]② Kim Hyung-jun "Difficult for People Power to Secure Majority, but Possible to Become Largest Party"

Changes Coming to Seoul's 'Hangang Belt' and Chungcheong Region
Jogeuk New Party Faces Dispersion Effect, Difficult to Expand Base
Medical Crisis May Explode as a Negative Factor for People Power Party

Kim Hyung-jun, Chair Professor at Paichai University, is an election expert who has served as the president of the Election Society. He is also a political analyst actively appearing on various broadcasts. On the morning of the 11th at 11 a.m., we met him to ask about the general election outlook. Professor Kim predicted, “If the current trend continues, a majority will be difficult, but the People Power Party could become the first party.”

Professor Kim Hyung-jun, Chair Professor at Paichai University, predicted, "At the current trend, the People Power Party could become the first party." Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

How do you evaluate the nominations by the ruling and opposition parties?

There are three main criteria for evaluating nominations: transparency, objectivity, and fairness. The Democratic Party of Korea uniquely dualized the nomination-related organizations this time. There is the Public Official Recommendation Committee and the Strategic Public Official Recommendation Committee. They also set a general principle to exclude the bottom 20%, but the criteria were unclear. There were even concerns about fairness to the extent that the phrase “Pro-Myeong luck, anti-Myeong death” emerged.

The People Power Party had relatively fewer controversies. Ultimately, incumbents were undefeated, and the pro-Yoon faction was strong. However, unlike the Democratic Party, there was no systematic penalty against incumbents. This also showed that the so-called “Gaeddal” (pro-Yoon fan group) does not exist within the People Power Party.

Are you saying the People Power Party planned their nomination strategy well?

They executed a strategic soft landing. First, Representative Jang Je-won made a non-candidacy declaration and took the lead. Second, senior incumbents like Seo Byung-soo, Cho Hae-jin, and Kim Tae-ho were repositioned early on. Third, in Songpa Gap, the cutoff of lawyer Seok Dong-hyun, a 40-year close friend of the president, succeeded in image-making. It differentiated from the president and instilled an image of relative fairness, which influenced party support and other factors.

How do you see the current election outlook?

There are three factors influencing party support. First is the evaluation of the person leading the party. If you compare the favorability ratings of Han Dong-hoon, the emergency committee chairman, and Lee Jae-myung, the party leader, who would score higher? This is the biggest factor. Second is which party is perceived as fair amid the nomination turmoil, and third is what is new.

The dynamic has shifted from Yoon Seok-youl vs. Lee Jae-myung to Han Dong-hoon vs. Lee Jae-myung. Yoon Seok-youl has disappeared. The president’s approval rating has maintained the 40% range for three consecutive weeks. About 80% of this is attributed to the Han Dong-hoon effect, and 20% to the president’s efforts such as holding public discussions on people’s livelihoods. Furthermore, public support is high for the strong response to the medical crisis. If the current trend continues, a majority will be difficult, but the People Power Party could become the first party.

Could the medical crisis become a risk factor going forward?

Yes. It could be different from now on. It has already lasted three weeks. Since it concerns patients’ lives, the longer it drags on, the more disadvantageous it becomes.

Is there a possibility that Lee Jae-myung might resign?

There is no possibility of resignation. With only a month left, unless a special change occurs, the Lee Jae-myung leadership will be maintained. In that case, the current party support trend will not change drastically. Analyzing party support from the fourth week of February 2020 to the second week of April when the general election was held, the ruling Democratic Party’s support was 37% in the fourth week of February 2020, similar to now. If the Han Dong-hoon?Lee Jae-myung dynamic does not change, it will not collapse easily.

When evaluating parties, the party’s image is more important than the percentage of party support. Gallup conducted a party image survey in the fourth week of last February, assessing five aspects: efforts for economic development, efforts for welfare of ordinary people, shaping public opinion, efforts for reform and innovation, and efforts for a fair society. The Democratic Party particularly lagged in reform and innovation and efforts for a fair society. This is important. Looking at the nomination process, Lee’s goal seems clear.

Goal? What is it?

Lee aimed to replace the mainstream faction of the Democratic Party through this nomination process. He intended to thoroughly transform it into a pro-Myeong faction. This is to reduce his own judicial risk and to secure party leadership at the August party convention. Even if he loses this general election, Lee is likely to challenge for party leadership. This is to hold on until the Supreme Court ruling. The Democratic Party initially talked about 180?200 seats but will likely struggle.

Professor Kim predicted that changes will occur in the Hangang Belt in the case of Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Why do you predict the People Power Party will become the first party?

For the People Power Party to become the first party, they need to win about 47 out of 122 seats in the metropolitan area, including about 23 seats in Seoul. In the 21st general election, they won 8 seats there. The Han River Belt’s 12 seats are noteworthy. In the last presidential election, except for Yongsan, President Yoon won all other areas in the Han River Belt.

In Gyeonggi Province, the semiconductor belt and the belt wanting to be incorporated into Seoul are attracting attention. Residents in those areas have vested interests. One reason to go to the polls is pocket-value voting, meaning voting when it benefits one’s own pocket.

The truly interesting region is the Chungcheong area. Chungcheong is a swing voter region. In the 2022 local elections, the People Power Party won 23 out of 31 Chungcheong local governments, and the Democratic Party won 8. However, in 2020, it was exactly the opposite: the Democratic Party won 23, and the People Power Party won 8. This time, Chungcheong is likely to lean toward the People Power Party.

The Jo Guk Innovation Party is a hot topic.

In reality, the Jo Guk Innovation Party does not create new opposition support but only disperses existing Democratic Party supporters. As confirmed by the Korea Gallup survey, the Democratic Party supporters’ votes were split between the Democratic Party-centered proportional alliance party (62%) and the Jo Guk new party (26%). The high support rate for the Jo Guk Innovation Party is a phenomenon caused by the “pro-Moon massacre nomination.” The faction opposing the pro-Moon massacre defected from the Democratic Party.

At the same time, the Democratic Party satellite party “The Democratic Union,” which paved the way for the entry into the National Assembly of the Progressive Party, the successor of the Unified Progressive Party dissolved by the Constitutional Court as an anti-state force, and figures whose Korean identity is questioned, caused some Democratic Party supporters who disagree with it to defect to the Jo Guk Innovation Party. When combining the satellite party support rate and the Jo Guk Innovation Party’s support rate, it is similar to the original party support rate.

The centrist voters are watching. Expansion of the base is difficult. The strong anti-Yoon forces’ alliance to overcome judicial risks is too strong, and they will suffer again due to the proportional satellite party.

Professor Kim analyzed that the medical crisis could act as a negative factor for the People Power Party. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

What do you think about Lee Jun-seok, leader of the Reform New Party?

He made several mistakes. The process of uniting and then breaking up was decisively wrong. It imprinted the image that he is untrustworthy. Trust collapsed rapidly. Also, Lee was the biggest victim of the Democratic Party’s nomination turmoil. He did not appear in the news at a critical time. Third, it is unclear what values Lee pursues. He should practice additive politics but seems accustomed to subtractive politics. Running in Hwaseong was also a mistake. He should have gone to Jongno or Daegu instead.

What variables remain?

After the nominations of both ruling and opposition parties are finalized and the full-scale election campaign begins, public opinion trends can change at any time during the remaining election period. Haven’t we seen public opinion favoring the Democratic Party suddenly change within the past month? Korean voters are that complicated, sensitive, and emotional. It is unpredictable when and how they will change. Variables include the voting intentions and turnout of the 2030 youth, unexpected last-minute verbal controversies, the impact of the medical strike-induced medical crisis, and North Korean variables. Especially if the medical crisis prolongs, the impact will be significant. It could explode as a negative factor against the People Power Party at some point.