[General Election Outlook] ① Choi Byung-cheon "Democratic Party Under 120 Seats, People Power Party Over 160 Seats"

Democratic Party Nomination Follows '2016 Park Geun-hye Nomination'
Han Dong-hoon Loses Points, Lee Jae-myung Scores Almost None
Lee Jae-myung and Jo Jung-sik Should Withdraw Even Now

Choi Byung-chun, director of the New Growth Economy Research Institute, who gained attention for his works "Good Inequality" and "Winning Political Science," has been a member of the Democratic Party of Korea for 12 years. He also served as the deputy director of the Democratic Research Institute, the party's think tank. He says, "My father was a common party member who used to play former President Kim Dae-jung's speeches during meals."

These days, he is raising his voice, talking about the "Democratic Party's defeat in the general election." Director Choi predicted, "The Democratic Party will secure fewer than 120 seats, while the People Power Party will take more than 160 seats." We met him on the afternoon of the 8th at 2 p.m. in the Asia Economy conference room in Chungmuro, Jung-gu, Seoul.

Director Choi Byung-cheon predicted that the Democratic Party would suffer a crushing defeat in this general election. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

With the ruling and opposition parties' nominations nearing completion, how do you evaluate them?

A representative case of poor election results due to bad nominations was the Saenuri Party's 2016 general election. At that time, there was the ousting of Yoo Seung-min and the Kim Moo-sung fist incident... There was controversy over whether candidates were "true pro-Park" or not. In today's popular expression, it was like distinguishing whether someone was a "watermelon" or not. Back then, the Saenuri Party was expected to win comfortably but only secured 122 seats. The Democratic Party won 123 seats and became the ruling party. This time, the Democratic Party's nominations are following the 2016 Park Geun-hye line.

Regarding the People Power Party's nominations, some say there is "no impression." What do you think?

Han Dong-hoon, the emergency committee chairman's nominations were quiet and without noise. Analyzing 17 elections since democratization in 1987, including general and presidential elections, the keys to victory can be summarized in three: division, reflexive benefits, and centrist expansion. If you avoid division, avoid mistakes, and innovate to expand to the center, you win. The essence is to complement weaknesses. Another way to say "noise-free nominations" is nominations that reduce divisive elements.

The Democratic Party's core support base consists of pro-Moon (pro-Moon Jae-in), pro-Lee (pro-Lee Jae-myung), and Honam regions. They form support rates in the low to mid-30% range. Without division, attracting 2030 women and 50s white-collar workers is necessary to judge the Yoon Seok-youl government. However, instead of expanding to the center, they shattered their support base. The so-called "Moon-Myung conflict (Moon Jae-in vs. Lee Jae-myung conflict)" creates "Moon-Myung destruction," leading to the Democratic Party's crushing defeat. They are almost repeating the 2016 true pro-Park identification election.

How do you see the general election landscape?

Among the 254 constituencies, there are areas where the Democratic Party is absolutely strong and areas where the People Power Party is absolutely strong. The Democratic Party holds 31 seats, including Honam (28 seats) and Jeju (3 seats). The People Power Party holds 73 seats, including Yeongnam (65 seats) and Gangwon (8 seats). We must not forget this 31 to 73 structure. The Democratic Party starts at a disadvantage of 42 seats. The basic strength and fundamentals differ. So far, the Democratic Party has been playing a game of overturning this in the metropolitan and Chungcheong regions.

Since democratization in 1987, the Democratic Party has secured a majority in only two of nine general elections: 2004 and 2020. The commonality in these two elections is that the Democratic Party received over 70% of votes in the metropolitan and Chungcheong regions. The Democratic Party faction can only secure a majority if it is always integration-oriented and centrist-expansion-oriented. Even without recent nomination conflicts, talk of 180 seats is nonsense.

The Democratic Party is repeating the 2016 case where a favorable situation turned unfavorable, failing to learn from the 2012 case where it overcame an unfavorable situation with an economic democratization centrist expansion line. Therefore, this general election is very unfavorable for the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is likely to secure fewer than 120 seats, while the People Power Party is likely to get more than 160 seats.

Now that nominations are complete and the real game begins, isn't this prediction premature?

The big picture of the landscape is already decided. Gathering three groups?pro-Lee Democratic Party, anti-Lee Democratic Party, and voters critical of President Yoon Seok-youl?forms the anti-Yoon front. However, the Democratic Party is currently running the election as one group. (During the nomination process) They sent a message that those who do not like Representative Lee Jae-myung have no right to join the Democratic Party. Instead, Lee should have stepped back to the second line, and a centrist figure like former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum should have been appointed emergency committee chairman. Then it could have become a progressive-centrist political coalition.

Chairman Han minimized and complemented weaknesses, but Representative Lee strengthened weaknesses and maximized division. Of course, some Democratic Party supporters may return after nominations. However, whether the departed centrists will return is doubtful. It will not be enough to overturn the landscape.

Representative Lee described the nominations as a "nomination revolution." What do you think?

Lee is not the one to judge right or wrong; the voters are. Voters think, based on various indicators, that the Democratic Party's nominations were more unfair. Unfairness includes judgments about incidents and leadership. They should have convincingly explained to voters, apologized, or withdrawn from candidacy, but instead, they tell the public, "You are all wrong," refusing to acknowledge public perception. This is denial of reality. Would the public say, "True pro-Park identification is bad, but watermelon identification is excellent"? The public applies the same standard. If you scream "anti-Lee," you must realize you are also in danger...

Why do you think Representative Lee conducted the nominations this way?

It seems like the paradox of success. Just because you sell fish-shaped buns well doesn't mean you can manage a large supermarket well. Lee's success as mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi Province comes from two things: one, visible policies related to cash welfare; two, organizational control. If someone was lukewarm or disobedient, he imposed punitive disadvantages decisively. Now, he treats Democratic Party lawmakers like Gyeonggi provincial council members?a suppression-centered mindset. Lee must not forget he is a first-term lawmaker who has been in office for less than two years.

Also, there is a problem with the "Poll Flower" survey. Compared to the top 5 to 10 highly reliable polling firms, the Democratic Party's support rate comes out higher. It actively plays a role in preventing a realistic view. It provides grounds for misjudgments like "It's okay to massacre anti-Lee candidates" or "We can still do more." Lee's leadership, the "Gaeddal" (Daughter of Reform) fandom, the News Factory, and the Poll Flower mutually assist in misjudgments, increasing the likelihood of a crushing defeat. The Democratic Party camp is much more vulnerable to fandom politics. Since February 5, when Im Hyuk-baek, the nomination committee chairman, raised the "previous government responsibility theory," the Democratic Party has not done anything worthy of applause. Chairman Han has almost no losses, but Lee has almost no gains.

Director Choi insists, "Representative Lee Jae-myung should withdraw from the race even now." Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

There is an assessment that the Joguk Innovation Party will make a breakthrough in proportional representation.

Some pro-Moon and Honam supporters have joined the Joguk Innovation Party. The crossover voting group seems to be about 10-15%. Another point is that among the Democratic Party's proportional alliance party, the Together Democratic Union, only three of the top 12 candidates are Democratic Party candidates?numbers 4, 8, and 12. The rest are from the Progressive Party, New Progressive Alliance, etc. For Democratic Party supporters, assuming they cast four votes, only one vote goes to a Democratic Party candidate. Simply put, they are helping others. On the other hand, if you cast four votes for the Joguk Innovation Party, all four go to them. The cost-effectiveness is much higher than the Democratic Party. Democratic Party supporters who do not strongly reject former Minister Cho Kuk will defect further. There is even a possibility of a reversal in support rates.

What should the Democratic Party do now to change the atmosphere?

The last card is to respond to voters' legitimate complaints and protests. Emergency measures must be taken. Those responsible for this nomination, including Representative Lee, Secretary-General Cho Jung-sik, Nomination Committee Chairman Ahn Kyu-baek, and Representative Jung Sung-ho, should withdraw from candidacy. Those responsible for the "anti-Lee massacre, pro-Lee windfall" nominations must take responsibility. They should withdraw and apologize to the public even now.

Representative Lee calls it a "nomination revolution," but isn't that unrealistic?

That is what must be done to reverse the situation. If someone asked me what I would do as emergency committee chairman, I would withdraw Lee's nominations. I would withdraw the nominations of two or three people responsible for this situation and apologize to the public. Only then will centrist voters' anger subside. Responding to voters' legitimate complaints and protests is the basics of politics. But they are not responding.

Are there any variables ahead?

There could be "slips of the tongue" or North Korea variables. The impact of slips depends on their degree and the leader's response. The North Korea variable would not be bad for the ruling party. The "Kim Geon-hee variable" could be considered, but the probability is extremely low. She doesn't even travel abroad...