[New York Diary] Trump Is Just the Beginning... "The Era of Stronger Men Is Coming to America"

"Donald Trump is a figure created by the American version of the New Right. Trump is just the beginning. Stronger politicians will emerge over the next 50 years."

This is the assessment of a U.S. political insider I recently met. He said American politics is at a turning point. Established politicians, including Joe Biden, have so far focused on maintaining the stable international order managed by the United States. Trump is the one who has stepped forward to blow up this existing Washington politics. According to him, the U.S.-led international order built over about 80 years since World War II is no longer advantageous to the U.S. and has reached the end of its lifespan. The overwhelming victory of Trump in the Republican primary on the "Super Tuesday" of the 5th, and numerous polls showing him ahead in a rematch against Biden, indicate that many Americans share this view.

Judging only by Trump's statements so far, they are so extreme that they can be bewildering. Remarks such as "I will provoke Russia to attack NATO members who pay less for defense," "I want to be a dictator for just one day," and "I will impose tariffs exceeding 60% on all Chinese imports" naturally lead to the label 'Crazy Trump.' It is hard to accept this when thinking of the America of the past. However, if one remains stuck there, one can neither understand nor prepare for the changed American sentiment and political transformation. The Rust Belt, a declining industrial region in the Midwest and South where many Americans have lost jobs and become poor due to manufacturing moving overseas caused by globalization, cheers Trump's slogan MAGA (Make America Great Again). The Bible Belt, mostly conservative Christian whites who take a hard stance on LGBTQ issues, abortion, and immigration, is the same. They are trying to restore the lost values of America through Trump.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Trump fever contains a question Americans are posing to the world. Americans ask: Why should we import goods from around the world despite running a trade deficit amounting to 2.8% of GDP (as of 2023)? The U.S. pours 3.5% of its GDP and 40% of global military spending into defense, providing a 'security umbrella' not only for itself but also for its allies. But why do allies free-ride on the U.S. at a bargain price? Until now, the calculation was that even if the U.S. took some losses, it was advantageous to maintain dominant economic and military power as the issuer of the global reserve currency, the dollar, and to establish American values worldwide. Americans now judge that this is no longer the case. They are ready to drop the label of the most generous empire in history and openly prioritize 'America First' for the ordinary middle class. From outside the U.S. or through the eyes of American intellectuals, this may be hard to understand, but from the perspective of ordinary Americans, Trump's policy stance can be quite common sense.

America First is not unique to Trump. It has already become a bipartisan value encompassing both Democrats and Republicans. Biden is implementing the CHIPS and Science Act (CSA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and create jobs. To this end, he has openly revived industrial policy by distributing subsidies. As anti-immigrant sentiment spreads, he has abandoned the previous conciliatory stance and is pushing for stronger border controls. The trend has already tilted toward America First. It is only a matter of degree; both essentially represent MAGA. Trump has returned even stronger, and Americans, struggling more to make ends meet amid high interest rates and inflation, are now refusing to be 'shy Trumpers.'

There is no longer a 'Crazy Trump' in America. Nor is there a kind Biden. Over the past four years, America First has taken deeper root, and American politics has already entered a turning point. Selfish America is a constant, not a variable. With the U.S. presidential election coming up this November, a rematch between Biden and Trump is confirmed. Trump and 'Trumpism' may just be the beginning of a changing America. It is time for cold calculation and strategic judgment about what to give up and what to gain from the U.S.