[Presidential Office and Deputy Ministers Candidates] High-Ranking Officials Survive, Many Below Secretary Level Eliminated

As of the 4th, 10 out of 36 candidates confirmed
'Yongsan Halo' not as big as expected
8 out of 18 former ministers confirmed

As the People Power Party's nomination process for the April 10 general election passes the critical stage, the fortunes of former presidential office aides are diverging. An analysis by Asia Economy of 38 candidates from the presidential office shows that most high-ranking aides at the secretary level or above have secured nominations. However, survival rates sharply decline among those at the secretary and administrative officer levels. The so-called 'Yongsan halo effect' is considered to have fallen short of expectations. Former ministers and vice ministers from the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, who appeared as relief pitchers, also mostly secured nominations among star-level ministers.

Among those who left the current presidential office and registered as preliminary candidates, as of the 4th, 10 out of 36 (28%) have confirmed nominations. These are mainly high-ranking aides at the secretary level or above, who received uncontested nominations. Eighteen were cut off (excluded from nomination) or lost in primaries, and 10 are awaiting results.

All senior-level candidates have secured nominations. These include former Senior Secretary for Civil Society Kang Seung-gyu, former Senior Secretary for Public Relations Kim Eun-hye, and former Deputy Director of the National Security Office Lim Jong-deuk. Former Future Strategy Planning Officer Jang Sung-min also received an uncontested nomination.

Kang Seung-gyu, former Senior Secretary for Civil Society from Yesan, Chungnam, was uncontestedly nominated in Chungnam Hongseong-Yesan after incumbent lawmaker Hong Moon-pyo withdrew from the primary. Kang, a former journalist for Hankook Ilbo and Kyunghyang Shinmun, served as a public relations officer during former President Lee Myung-bak's tenure as Seoul mayor. He was elected in 2008 from Seoul Mapo-gap and served as a member of the 18th National Assembly but lost in the 20th and 21st elections. In the 22nd election, he will face Yang Seung-jo, a former Chungnam governor and Democratic Party candidate, in his hometown.

Kim Eun-hye, former Senior Secretary for Public Relations, was nominated in a fiercely contested district. Running in Bundang, Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, Kim won the nomination by defeating party spokesperson Kim Min-su in the primary. However, she will face incumbent two-term Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Byung-wook in Bundang-eul. Kim ran for Gyeonggi governor in the June 2022 local elections but lost to incumbent Kim Dong-yeon and subsequently served as the presidential office's Senior Secretary for Public Relations. Lim Jong-deuk, former Deputy Director of the National Security Office, was uncontestedly nominated in the Gyeongbuk Yeongju-Yeongyang-Bonghwa district. Jang Sung-min, former Future Strategy Planning Officer, was uncontestedly nominated in Ansan Sangnok-gap, Gyeonggi Province, where senior Democratic Party lawmaker Jeon Hae-cheol holds the seat.

Among secretaries, only three out of ten?former secretaries Joo Jin-woo, Jeon Hee-kyung, and Lee Won-mo?have confirmed nominations. Former Legal Secretary Joo Jin-woo and former Personnel Secretary Lee Won-mo were nominated in Busan Haeundae-gap and Gyeonggi Yongin-gap, respectively. They are considered part of the Yoon Seok-yeol faction, composed of close prosecutors from Yoon's prosecutorial days. Busan Haeundae-gap, where Joo is running, is a conservative stronghold where People Power Party lawmaker Ha Tae-kyung served three consecutive terms. Ha declared his candidacy in a tough Seoul district and left the seat vacant. Lee initially applied for nomination in Seoul Gangnam-eul but was strategically nominated (priority recommendation) in Gyeonggi Yongin-gap, a district where conservative candidates from the People Power Party have won the last three elections.

Former Political Secretary Jeon Hee-kyung, who entered the National Assembly as a proportional representative in the 20th term, received an uncontested nomination in Gyeonggi Uijeongbu-gap. Jeon was appointed in September 2022 during the presidential office's political line reshuffle and has been communicating with the political sphere since. Gyeonggi Uijeongbu-gap is a district where former National Assembly Speaker Moon Hee-sang was consecutively elected from the 16th to the 20th general elections before redistricting. It is considered a Democratic Party-leaning district, having supported Democratic lawmaker Oh Young-hwan in the 21st general election.

Among administrative officers, only three out of 24 survived. Former Administrative Officer Jo Ji-yeon of the National Policy Message Secretary's Office was uncontestedly nominated in Gyeongbuk Gyeongsan, where lawmaker Yoon Doo-hyun is not running. Jo, born in 1987, is relatively young and holds the administrative officer rank but is considered a founding 'true Yoon' who closely assisted President Yoon after his political declaration by overseeing various monitoring and messaging tasks. Gyeongsan is a conservative stronghold, but former four-term lawmaker Choi Kyung-hwan, who declared an independent candidacy, makes it a challenging race. Former Administrative Officer Lee Seung-hwan of the Political Secretary's Office was uncontestedly nominated in Seoul Jungnang-eul (Park Hong-geun's district).

Meanwhile, Shin Jae-kyung, a 'founding member' who has assisted President Yoon since his presidential candidacy, secured a spot in the general election by defeating former Incheon city spokesperson Ko Ju-ryong in Incheon Namdong-eul. This district, where Democratic lawmaker Yoon Kwan-seok won from the 19th to 21st terms, is considered a People Power Party-weak area. However, Shin dreams of a 'turnaround' by cooperating with the People Power Party-affiliated Incheon mayor and Namdong district head to develop Namdong-gu.

A ruling party official expressed regret over the administrative officers' nomination failures, saying, "Many of them worked hard without hesitation on difficult tasks for the party and government and mostly challenged tough districts. Since the party does not see them as fresh faces, they were not treated like newcomers."

Eight Former Ministers and Vice Ministers Confirmed Nominations... Mixed Fortunes

The fortunes of former ministers and vice ministers from the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, who appeared as 'relief pitchers,' also varied in the People Power Party's general election nominations. Of 18 former ministers and vice ministers, eight (44%) survived. Ministers, who combine competence and star power, survived as expected, buoyed by popular support, but some vice ministers relying on the Yongsan halo effect were eliminated one after another.

The surviving former ministers and vice ministers include ▲Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choo Kyung-ho (Daegu Dalseong) ▲Former Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong (Incheon Gyeyang-eul) ▲Former Minister of Unification Kwon Young-se (Seoul Yongsan) ▲Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Park Jin (Seoul Seodaemun-eul) ▲Former Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Bang Moon-kyu (Gyeonggi Suwon-byeong) ▲Former Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Cho Seung-hwan (Busan Jung-Yeongdo) ▲Former Vice Minister of Economy and Finance Kim Wan-seop (Gangwon Wonju-eul) ▲Former Vice Minister of National Defense Shin Beom-cheol (Chungnam Cheonan-gap).

The big showdown among former ministers is in 'Incheon Gyeyang-eul.' On the 2nd, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung was uncontestedly nominated in his home district of Incheon Gyeyang-eul, setting up a 'Myung-ryong showdown' against People Power Party's former Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong. The contest between the opposition leader aiming for the presidency and the star-level minister with mass appeal is expected to be the highlight of this general election. Notably, Won's candidacy in Incheon Gyeyang-eul is interpreted as a strategic move to keep Lee Jae-myung tied to his home district.

Former Deputy Prime Minister Choo Kyung-ho is seeking a third term in his home district of Daegu Dalseong. His experience as a high-ranking bureaucrat and active past local activities contribute to his stability. In a final press briefing at the government Sejong office in December last year, Choo emphasized, "I am a local district lawmaker," and stated, "The moment I leave this position, I return as the National Assembly member for Daegu Dalseong," distinguishing himself from some other candidates.

Former Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Bang Moon-kyu is drawing attention by running in a tough metropolitan district. Suwon city, with a population of 1.2 million, is currently entirely held by the Democratic Party across its five districts (Gap, Eul, Byeong, Jeong, Mu). The People Power Party is challenging to reclaim the area by fielding Bang, a native of Suwon.

Prominent 'pro-Yoon' figure and former Minister of Unification Kwon Young-se was included in the People Power Party's uncontested nomination list on the 14th of last month. Kwon's district, Seoul Yongsan, where he was elected four years ago, has seen conservative party candidates win four out of five elections from the 17th to the 21st general elections. The district is symbolically significant as the location of the presidential office. However, the Itaewon tragedy and the resulting unfavorable public opinion toward the government and ruling party are expected to pose obstacles to Kwon's bid for a fifth term.

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Park Jin's move to a tough district is also a point of interest. A 'four-term senior lawmaker,' Park is running in the challenging Seoul Seodaemun-eul at the party's request. Known to have deliberated deeply, Park served three terms in Jongno from the 16th general election and was elected in Gangnam-eul in the 21st general election. Although he applied for nomination in Gangnam-eul again, he shifted districts at the party's request.

Former Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Cho Seung-hwan secured a ticket to the general election after a third primary. He is the first former minister from the Yoon government to become a candidate after a primary. Cho is running in Busan Jung-Yeongdo, a conservative stronghold vacated by lawmaker Hwang Bo-seung-hee, who left the party and is not running. Cho competed against former Prime Minister's Secretary-General Park Sung-geun (vice minister level).

On the other hand, even pro-Yoon figures benefiting from the 'Yongsan halo' faced repeated defeats. Former First Vice Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Kim Oh-jin ran in Gyeongbuk Gimcheon, and former Vice Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Park Sung-hoon, who previously served as the presidential office's National Policy Planning Secretary and was Busan's Deputy Mayor for Economic Affairs, ran in Busanjin-gap but both failed.