'47% to 45%' Trump Leads Biden Again... 20% of Voters Say "Immigration Issue is Most Important"

WSJ Conducts February Poll
Trump Leads Biden with 47% to 45% Support
20% of Respondents Cite "Immigration" as Top Priority
Economy Trails at 14%

Former President Donald Trump, who swept the Republican presidential primaries, is once again leading President Joe Biden in the polls for the upcoming November election, where a 'return match' between the two is highly likely. Additionally, a significant number of voters identified immigration as the most important issue over the economy, indicating that as the U.S. presidential election approaches, the impact of immigration and border issues, which have emerged as major points of contention, is expected to grow.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 3rd (local time), a poll conducted from the 21st to the 28th of last month with 1,500 voters showed that in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup in the 2024 presidential election, former President Trump leads President Biden by 2 percentage points, with 47% support compared to Biden's 45%. In a December poll last year, Trump led by 4 percentage points, so the gap has narrowed this time.

In a multi-candidate hypothetical matchup, former President Trump recorded 40% support, 5 percentage points higher than President Biden's 35%. This difference exceeds the margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. In the multi-candidate scenario, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ranked third with 9% support, and he appears to be drawing more votes away from Biden than from Trump.

A notable point in this poll is that despite the U.S. economy continuing a 'lone boom' and voter satisfaction with the economy increasing, President Biden's approval ratings have not significantly improved. Among respondents, 31% said the economy has improved over the past two years, and 43% said their personal finances have improved. These figures represent increases of 10 and 9 percentage points respectively compared to the previous survey. However, two-thirds of voters responded that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, indicating a generally harsh assessment of inflation.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Voters appear to prioritize immigration issues over the economy. When asked about the most important issue for voting in the presidential election, 20% chose immigration, which is higher than the 14% who selected the economy. This is analyzed as a factor why President Biden's approval ratings have not noticeably increased despite improved perceptions of the economic situation.

Particularly, 65% of respondents criticized the Biden administration's border security response, marking the highest level in two years. The proportion of those who said immigration and border security issues are moving in the wrong direction was 71%. President Biden, who initially pursued a conciliatory immigration policy, has recently requested budget approval for border security and visited Brownsville, Texas, a southern border area, in an effort to appease voters with strong anti-immigration sentiments.

Michael Boshian, a Democratic election strategist, analyzed, "Because voters are not worried about the economy, they are turning their attention to other issues," adding, "This ultimately benefits President Biden." However, he added, "He still needs to address that issue." On the other hand, Republican election strategist Tony Fabrizio said, "Immigration is the worst issue for President Biden," and assessed that "the situation is actually worsening little by little."

The 'age risk' also appears to be a hindrance for both candidates. Among respondents, 73% said that 81-year-old President Biden is "too old" to run for re-election, the same figure as in the August survey last year. For 77-year-old former President Trump, 52% said he is "too old," which is a 5 percentage point increase from the August survey.

Meanwhile, on the upcoming 'Super Tuesday' scheduled for the 5th of this month, former President Trump is expected to secure his place in the general election. On the 2nd, he won big in the Republican presidential primaries in Missouri, Michigan, and Idaho, securing 51 delegates. Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (UN) and a Republican primary competitor who has expressed her intention to complete the race, is expected to face increased pressure to withdraw.