[General Election Compass] What the Over 40% Approval Rating Recovered by President Yoon Means

President Yoon's Approval Rating Shows Clear Improvement After Lunar New Year
Possibility of Weakened Trend in Regime Judgment Theory

President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating has recently shown a clear recovery trend. While the suspicions surrounding First Lady Kim Geon-hee's luxury handbag purchases were initially seen as a burden for the ruling party, there is now a prospect that President Yoon could become a key pillar contributing to the ruling party's victory in the general election.

Looking at the regularly released opinion polls on the 28th, President Yoon's approval rating shows signs of recovery since the Lunar New Year. According to a poll released by Realmeter on the 26th (commissioned by Energy Economy, conducted from the 19th to 23rd nationwide with 2,504 voters aged 18 and over using wireless and wired automated response methods), President Yoon's approval rating was recorded at 41.9%. After four consecutive weeks of rising approval ratings, he regained the 40% range for the first time in eight months. Negative evaluations, which had fluctuated between the high 50% and low 60% range, dropped to the mid-50% range for the first time in nearly a year.

In the Gallup poll, President Yoon's approval rating was 34% (conducted from the 20th to 22nd nationwide with 1,003 voters aged 18 and over using virtual phone numbers for telephone interviews), up 5 percentage points from 29% in the poll released before the Lunar New Year (announced on the 29th of last month). In the biweekly nationwide indicator survey (NBS, jointly conducted by Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research, conducted over three days from the 19th to 21st with 1,005 men and women aged 18 and over using virtual phone numbers for telephone interviews), President Yoon's approval rating was 38%, up 7 percentage points from 31% in the pre-Lunar New Year survey (4th week of January).

President Yoon Suk-yeol is making closing remarks at the 6th Central-Local Cooperation Meeting held at the Blue House's Yeongbingwan on the 27th. [Image source=Yonhap News]

The Han Dong-hoon Effect, Medical School Quota Expansion, and Democratic Party Infighting Drive the Rise

Experts attribute the rise in President Yoon's approval rating to reform movements such as the expansion of medical school quotas, a focus on policy issues rather than ideological or political matters, the recent rise in support for the People Power Party symbolized by Han Dong-hoon, the emergency committee chairman, and the Democratic Party's internal nomination conflicts, which have allowed President Yoon to reap the benefits.

Kim Bong-shin, director of Metavoice, said, "It seems that as the ruling party's approval rating rises, President Yoon's approval rating improves as well," adding, "The effect of Han Dong-hoon, the People Power Party emergency committee chairman, appears to be transferring in reverse." Kim analyzed, "Issues related to First Lady Kim were offset by issues such as the medical crisis," and noted, "Moderate-leaning voters seem to be tilting toward the pro-government side after experiencing the medical crisis." Choi Byung-chun, director of the New Growth Research Institute, analyzed, "The recent nomination turmoil within the Democratic Party is contributing to the rise in President Yoon's approval rating." Choi mentioned, "From the voters' perspective, the choice is ultimately a relative evaluation of 'which side is better,' and as the Democratic Party experiences turmoil, evaluations of President Yoon are improving compared to Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung."

What effects might the rise in President Yoon's approval rating lead to? Experts unanimously agree that it is a positive signal for the ruling party. Shin Yul, professor of political science at Myongji University, said, "An increase in the president's approval rating raises the possibility that the election dynamics will not be solely about judging the current administration," adding, "This is encouraging for the People Power Party." Regarding the issues related to First Lady Kim Geon-hee that were prominent at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, Professor Shin said, "Those issues will not change people's judgments."

For an overview and detailed results of the opinion polls, please refer to the Nationwide Indicator Survey website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.