[The Editors' Verdict] Doctors Should Find Answers in 'Future Healthcare'

The government's announcement on June 6 regarding the 'increase in medical school admissions' must be viewed together with the '4 Major Essential Medical Services Package' released earlier on June 1, the '2nd Comprehensive National Health Insurance Plan' on June 4, and the belatedly disclosed 'Supporting Data for Medical School Expansion.' These issues, which affect the public, are interconnected.

Our National Health Insurance pays doctors precisely each time they perform a procedure (fee-for-service system). The Essential Medical Services Package includes many measures linked to managing the health insurance finances. The prohibition of mixed billing and the licensing system for opening clinics are representative examples. Each suppresses medical demand and supply. On page 51 of the Comprehensive Health Insurance Plan, it states, "To ensure the stable operation of health insurance finances, social discussions will begin on raising the statutory ceiling of the health insurance premium rate, currently at 8%." This means amending Article 73 of the National Health Insurance Act to collect more premiums from salaried workers.

Park Min-su, the 2nd Vice Minister of Health and Welfare, said, "There is no causal relationship that increasing the number of doctors increases medical expenses; rather, if more doctors allow patients to receive timely care, severe diseases can be prevented, reducing medical costs." When the government says this to the public, it must be accompanied by evidence that "if primary care institutions increase treatment of mild diseases, the treatment volume of severe diseases at tertiary hospitals decreases." In reality, while health insurance benefits (medical expenses) paid to clinics increased by 9.6% in 2021 compared to the previous year, benefits to tertiary general hospitals increased even more, by 10.6%. Public opinion surveys on medical school expansion should neutrally ask not only "Do you support the expansion?" but also "Do you support the expansion if it means a possible increase in health insurance premiums?" It is not enough to ask "Would you buy a luxury car?" but also "Would you buy a luxury car even if fuel costs increase?" and then make a decision accordingly.

The Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, Korea Development Institute (KDI), and Seoul National University studies used as 'supporting data for expansion' all conclude that "the current medical system will face a shortage of doctors." Forecasting medical workforce supply and demand inherently relies on several assumptions. The KDI study assumed "future labor productivity of doctors will remain the same as now." The medical community counters that "with the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), doctors' labor productivity will continue to increase, so excluding this factor makes the calculation inaccurate."

Harvard Medical School published research showing that "using AI can reduce lung cancer CT scans by 30%." This means related doctors' labor productivity rises accordingly, and health insurance expenditures on CT scans decrease. The Harvard study used diagnostic programs from Korean AI medical companies. The Ministry of Science and ICT's 'Doctor Answer 2.0 Project Group' is developing 24 types of AI precision medical software for 12 diseases.

AI in healthcare is a compass pointing toward problem-solving directions. Utilizing AI in medical care can further increase doctors' labor productivity and control health insurance burdens even if the number of doctors increases. In response to medical school deans' appeals that there is no capacity for 2,000 more doctors, Vice Minister Park shared an old story that medical school classrooms in the 1980s were overcrowded like a bean sprout basket. It would have been better if he had said that the problem would be solved through advanced education using AI.

Doctors should stop unjustified collective actions and strive to improve the future level of medical care. Instead of fixating on increasing the number of doctors, the Ministry of Health and Welfare should refine policies aiming for institutional and technological advancement of the medical system, and Minister Cho Kyu-hong should stand before the microphone to explain to the public and persuade the medical community.