[News Terms] The 'Swing Voter' Who Will Decide the Final Election Outcome

Ahead of the April 10 general election, both ruling and opposition parties are actively working to win the votes of the centrist swing voters, who make up nearly 30% of all voters, and the 2030 generation. According to political circles, as the election day approaches and the confrontation between conservatives and progressives intensifies, the outcome of the election will increasingly depend on the preferences of these voters.

Swing voters refer to those who have not yet decided whom to vote for in an election or other voting activities. In the past, they were called "undecided voters," but now they are referred to as "swing voters" or "floating voters," meaning voters whose minds are wavering. In other words, they can be described as "floating voters."

Former leader Lee Nak-yeon, who left the Democratic Party of Korea, is taking a commemorative photo with Lee Jun-seok, Chairman of the Reform New Party's Policy Committee, and other key attendees at the 'New Future Party Founding Promoters' Meeting' held on the 16th at the Seoul Women's Plaza in Dongjak-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jin-Hyung Kang aymsdream@

Although they may seem similar to the "centrist group," which refers to subjective ideological leanings, or the "non-affiliated group," which has no party allegiance, there are some conceptual differences.

In elections, those who firmly support a particular party or politician tend not to change their minds regardless of what the opposing party or politician says. However, swing voters do not have a specific party or politician they support, so they vote based on the current political situation, issues, and policies they are interested in. It is difficult to predict what choice they will make until the final voting results are announced. Their voting preferences are much more fluid, and as disappointment or indifference toward politics grows, the number of swing voters increases.

When the major parties are relatively balanced in strength, swing voters hold the key to the election outcome and exert significant influence, especially in closely contested elections. Paradoxically, those who are uninterested in elections or politics are the ones most affected by the political environment.

In a regular survey released by Gallup Korea on the 16th, support for the People Power Party was recorded at 37%, and support for the Democratic Party was 31%, while the Reform New Party garnered only 4%. Swing voters who responded as non-affiliated accounted for as much as 24%. The non-affiliated group has consistently recorded figures in the 20% range since President Yoon Suk-yeol took office in May 2022, and at one point last year (from July 1 to the 4th week), it surged to 31%, marking its highest level.