[Exclusive] Ministry of Health and Welfare Refuses to Disclose Supporting Data for Medical School Enrollment Increase of 2,000 Students

Our Coverage, Verification of KDI and Seoul National University Research
KDI, "Optimal Increase is 5% Annually for 7 Years"
Seoul National University, "Without Increase, Shortage of 26,000 People"

The Ministry of Health and Welfare announced that it will not disclose the research contents from three institutions?Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, Korea Development Institute (KDI), and Seoul National University?that were used to decide on increasing medical school admissions by 2,000 students. Critics argue that it is irresponsible for the government not to explain the basis of policies that directly affect the national medical supply system and health insurance finances.

On the 6th, the Ministry announced that by 2035, there will be a shortage of 15,000 doctors, and starting from the 2025 academic year, it will expand the current medical school quota of 3,058 by 2,000 students, which is 65%, to secure essential medical personnel. On the 8th, two days later, Park Min-su, the 2nd Vice Minister of the Ministry, stated, "The scale of the increase is the result of research conducted by top domestic experts, including KDI, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, and Professor Hong Yoon-cheol of Seoul National University College of Medicine (Preventive Medicine), all national research institutions."

Park Min-su, Vice Minister of Health and Welfare, is holding a regular briefing of the Central Accident Response Headquarters for the doctors' collective action at the Government Seoul Office Building on the morning of the 15th.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 15th, Asia Economy inquired with the Ministry about the research results from the three institutions, but a Ministry official said, "It is difficult to disclose the titles of the research reports referenced by the government," and only stated, "Most of the research reports related to medical personnel were referenced," refusing to disclose the contents.

However, according to our investigation, the conclusions of the KDI and Seoul National University research reports differed significantly from the Ministry’s announced "immediate increase of 2,000" in terms of scale and method of increase. There were also considerable differences in the projected future shortage of doctors. Among the three institutions, the KDI study proposed gradually increasing the quota annually from the current 3,058 to a maximum of 4,518 by 2030. The Seoul National University College of Medicine study predicted that if the quota increased by 1,500, there would still be a shortage of 3,035 doctors by 2050. The contents of the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs study were not confirmed. Accordingly, there are calls for the Ministry to explain to what extent it referenced these research reports when formulating the increase policy.

Reference paper on the supply and demand of medical personnel indicated in the Ministry of Health and Welfare press release. [Image source=Ministry of Health and Welfare press release]

The medical community estimates that the Ministry used the "Specialty-specific Doctor Workforce Supply and Demand Projection Study" commissioned to the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs in 2021. The Ministry stated, "Since it has been decided not to disclose the referenced materials, we cannot confirm." In response, a Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs official said, "We understand that the government referenced the study. However, since the study was conducted as a commissioned project for the Ministry, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs cannot disclose its contents."

The KDI study used by the Ministry was announced in June last year and is titled "Doctor Workforce Outlook in Response to Demographic Changes," according to KDI. This study was presented at the "Expert Forum on Doctor Workforce Supply and Demand Projections for Discussing Appropriate Expansion of Doctor Workforce Based on Scientific Evidence," hosted by the Ministry on June 27 last year at the Royal Hotel in Seoul. The presentation is available on the Ministry’s YouTube channel "Ministry of Health and Welfare TV," from 55 minutes 36 seconds to 1 hour 16 minutes 6 seconds in the "Doctor Workforce Supply and Demand Projection Expert Forum" video.

A study titled "Physician Workforce Outlook in Response to Demographic Changes," presented at the "Expert Forum on Physician Workforce Supply and Demand Projections for Discussing Appropriate Physician Workforce Expansion Based on Scientific Evidence," hosted by the Ministry of Health and Welfare on June 27 last year at the Seoul Royal Hotel. [Image source=Captured from Ministry of Health and Welfare TV]

According to the study, to maintain the current level of doctors’ workload at the current level of medical utilization, up to 22,000 additional doctors will be needed by 2050. Based on the medical school quota of 3,058, increasing the quota by 5% annually from 2024 to 2030 to reach 4,303 and then maintaining this level would secure the closest possible number of doctors needed, the study suggests. The increase in the first year under this method would be 153 students. The study also recommends regularly readjusting the medical school quota after 2030, as the number of doctors needed is expected to decrease after 2050.

The research by Professor Hong mentioned by Vice Minister Park is titled "Study on the Adequacy of Doctor Workforce for Preparing for Future Society." The research report was published in the Korean Medical Association Medical Policy Research Institute’s "Medical Policy Forum," Vol. 18, No. 3 (Issue No. 70), pages 19?23, in September 2020. The report includes a table showing "the timing and number of doctor shortages under assumptions of increased admission quotas." The study predicted that if the current medical school quota is maintained, there will be a shortage of 26,570 doctors by 2050, and if increased by 1,500, there will still be a shortage of 3,035 doctors.

Professor Hong said in a phone interview on the 15th, "I have never been contacted by the Ministry to say they would reference my research for deciding the medical school quota increase." He added, "I completed the full report in October 2020. The conclusion of the full report is that 'if the current medical system is not improved, more doctors will be needed, so the medical system should be improved first.'" He continued, "I have consistently argued that the problematic medical system should be fixed before calculating the increase scale, but it seems the Ministry only took the beginning part of the report."