This Year's First Half ROK-US Joint Military Exercise... 11 Days from Next Month 4th

ICBM Provocations Expected Ahead of North Korea-US Joint Military Exercises

The schedule for this year's South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises has been finalized. The exercises will take place over 11 days, from the 4th to the 14th of next month. Military provocations by North Korea in response are anticipated.

On the 13th, U.S. soldiers are conducting combat training after disembarking from armored vehicles during the Amitiger demonstration brigade joint training held at Mugeon-ri training ground in Paju, Gyeonggi Province. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

On the 5th, a government official stated, "Next month's Freedom Shield (FS) joint exercise will be conducted using computer simulations," adding, "We plan to assume scenarios involving military provocations including North Korea's nuclear and missile threats and to check the joint defense posture."

South Korea and the U.S. have traditionally conducted the exercises in two phases?Phase 1 (defense) and Phase 2 (offense)?over nine days. Since last year, the exercises have been conducted continuously for 11 days without dividing into phases, and the same approach is planned this year. Numerous outdoor field training exercises will also be conducted. The FS joint exercise plans to conduct division-level joint amphibious landing exercises and about 20 South Korea-U.S. joint outdoor maneuver exercises at the level of the past Foal Eagle (FE) exercises. Starting with the Ssangryong joint amphibious landing exercise involving the South Korea-U.S. Marine Corps, the exercises will include joint scientific combat training, joint attack helicopter firing drills, and joint maritime patrol operations.

During this FS joint exercise, the plan is to complete and verify the Full Operational Capability (FOC) evaluation, which is the second stage of the three-stage assessment of operational performance for the wartime operational control transfer. However, it seems unlikely that the newly developed Operational Plan (OPLAN) 2022, created by South Korea and the U.S. to respond to North Korea's tactical nuclear weapon threats, will be applied in the exercise. It is expected that supplementing the plan with computer simulation war games and obtaining final approval between South Korea and the U.S. will only be possible by August.

North Korea defines FS as a "war rehearsal for invasion of the North." On the 28th of last month, North Korea threatened, referring to various South Korea-U.S. joint exercises and the deployment of U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula, stating, "If the spark of war is ignited, it will become the target of our merciless punitive expedition." Because of this, North Korea may continue provocations starting with short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) and extending to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) aimed at the U.S. A phase of "strong versus strong confrontation" could emerge.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "North Korea is likely to demonstrate military power with various missiles in response to the South Korea-U.S. exercises."