"Steal it if you have to, 'Make it mine'... Tandem fills intersection greed, cruise missiles become more covert [North Missile Development History]"

Missile Development Initiated Since Late 1970s
Aiming for Multi-Angle Production of Nuclear-Capable Missiles

On the 30th, North Korea launched several cruise missiles into the West Sea. Two days earlier, on the 28th, it also test-fired the ‘Bulhwachal-3-31 Submarine-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM)’ near Sinpo City, South Hamgyong Province. On the 24th, it launched missiles near Pyongyang, marking the third launch in a week. North Korea already possesses ballistic missiles classified as weapons of mass destruction (WMD), precision-strike capable cruise missiles, hard-to-intercept hypersonic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). It has diversified its 'missile arsenal.' What types of missiles has North Korea developed, and how significant is the threat?

Missiles are broadly divided into ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Ballistic missiles use rockets to exit the atmosphere and then re-enter, flying along a ballistic trajectory using inertia. In contrast, cruise missiles fly at low altitudes by drawing in air with jet engines. Ballistic missiles are classified by range: intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM, range over 5,500 km), intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM, 1,000?3,000 km), and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM, 300?1,000 km). Cruise missiles are classified by speed: subsonic (Mach 1 or below), supersonic (up to Mach 5), and hypersonic (up to Mach 10).

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆Ballistic Missiles with Extended Range= North Korea began developing ballistic missiles in the late 1970s. It acquired the Soviet-era Scud-B missile from Egypt and reverse-engineered it, securing ballistic missile technology. Subsequently, it extended the range to cover the Korean Peninsula and U.S. military bases in Japan by developing the Scud-C (range 500 km) and Scud-ER (range 1,000 km). From 1987, it focused on developing the Nodong missile. In May 1993, it successfully launched the Nodong missile (range 1,300 km). Its ambition for longer ranges did not diminish. In August 1998, it launched the Taepodong-1, shocking the world with a range of 1,600 km. In July 2006, it also launched the Taepodong-2, extending the range to 6,700 km.

The Kim Jong-un regime has made its ICBM development ambitions even more explicit. It conducted simulated tests of warhead atmospheric re-entry technology, solid rocket engine tests, new high-power engine ground thrust tests, and multiple ballistic missile test launches. It supplemented lacking technology by stealing classified information. In 2011, a North Korean agent was arrested while stealing classified documents from Yuzhnoye. Yuzhnoye is a Ukrainian state-owned design bureau specializing in rocket launch vehicles. During the Soviet era, it was the first to develop nuclear missiles and produced strategic missiles with ranges exceeding 10,000 km in the 1960s and 1970s, instilling fear in the Western world as a renowned rocket research institute.

From 500 km Scud to Solid-Fuel ICBM Completion

The results appeared quickly. In July 2017, North Korea launched its first ICBM, the Hwasong-14, successfully. However, it was insufficient to carry a large nuclear warhead. To address this, it developed the Hwasong-15. The Hwasong-15 has approximately 80 tf (ton-force, thrust per weight) thrust, can carry about 1 ton, and fly up to 13,000 km. The later-developed Hwasong-17 has about 160 tf thrust, can carry up to 2 tons, and is estimated to have a range of approximately 13,000 to 15,000 km.

North Korea is currently focusing on developing solid-fuel ICBMs. This is one of the ‘five major tasks’ in the five-year national defense development plan presented by Chairman Kim Jong-un at the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in January 2021. In April last year, it test-fired the ‘Hwasong-18’ for the first time, applying solid fuel. In the second launch in July of the same year, it achieved a peak altitude of 6,000 km with a high-angle launch. North Korea is enthusiastic about developing solid-fuel missiles because they have many advantages over liquid-fuel missiles. Liquid-fuel ICBMs must be launched within a week after fueling, increasing the chance of detection by enemy reconnaissance satellites during fueling. However, solid fuel is pre-loaded into the propellant, allowing launch at any time. Solid fuel is integrated with the warhead and can be stored for over ten years.

◆Cruise Missiles Aiming for Accuracy= The greatest advantages of cruise missiles are accuracy and stealth. The Earth is round. Radar waves travel straight, spreading into the air, making it difficult to detect low-flying objects, creating so-called blind spots. Cruise missiles exploit this. Flying close to the sea surface in a ‘sea-skimming’ manner, the missile is only detected when it is very close. Although slower than ballistic missiles, they are threatening. Ballistic missiles fly at speeds exceeding Mach 20 (20 times the speed of sound) during atmospheric re-entry, depending on the type, while cruise missiles typically fly subsonically, slower than the speed of sound.

The origin of cruise missiles is the U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile, first deployed in 1983. The Tomahawk was developed as a strategic missile equipped with a nuclear warhead but is now used as a tactical missile with a 450 kg high-explosive warhead due to its excellent versatility. Nuclear warhead loading has effectively disappeared. During the Gulf War, 288 were used, and 800 were used before the 2001 Afghanistan invasion and the 2003 Iraq invasion. Its speed is 800 km/h. North Korea also possesses cruise missiles, such as the ‘Hwasal-1’ and ‘Hwasal-2.’ According to specifications disclosed by North Korea, their speed is 700 km/h. Cruise missile speeds have evolved into hypersonic missiles. Hypersonic missiles typically fly at speeds above Mach 5 to 10 within the atmosphere and perform erratic maneuvers. They have a significant advantage in evading missile defense systems. Russia used them for the first time in combat during its invasion of Ukraine last year.

Increasing Cruise Missile Speed and Diversifying Launch Points

Hypersonic missiles are further classified into hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM). They share some characteristics with ballistic missiles. North Korea is developing HGVs like the ‘Hwasong-8,’ test-fired in September 2021. In January 2022, it test-fired a new type of hypersonic missile with a conical warhead twice, and on January 14 this year, it claimed to have tested an IRBM-class hypersonic missile. North Korea appears not to have acquired HCMs yet.

North Korea is also developing submarine-launched cruise missiles. It announced that the new cruise missile ‘Bulhwachal-3-31’ launched on the 28th is for submarine launch. This differs from existing launch platforms. The launch location is crucial for ballistic and cruise missiles. Generally, they are launched from the ground, making them easily exposed to enemy surveillance. Launching missiles from submarines or aircraft can conceal or deceive the launch origin. The Bulhwachal-3-31 suggests the capability to carry nuclear warheads and indicates North Korea’s plan to develop diverse nuclear delivery systems, i.e., missiles.