[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Cruise Missile Unable to Launch from Submarine

North Media: "Bulhwasal-3-31 Model Test Launch"
No Evidence of Submarine Launch Platform

The cruise missile launched by North Korea on the 28th is analyzed not to have been fired from a submarine. This means that North Korea has not yet acquired the technological capability to launch cruise missiles from submarines.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 29th, the Korean Central News Agency reported, "Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, supervised the test launch of the newly developed submarine-launched strategic cruise missile Hwacha-3-31," adding, "It flew over the East Sea for 7,421 seconds and 7,445 seconds (each 2 hours 3 minutes 41 seconds, 2 hours 4 minutes 5 seconds) and successfully struck island targets."

North Korea conducted the test launch of the submarine-launched strategic cruise missile to deploy it on the ‘Kim Gun-ok Hero’ submarine, which is over 3,000 tons. The ‘Kim Gun-ok Hero’ submarine, unveiled at the launching ceremony last September, has about 10 vertical launch system (VLS) tubes for submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) installed on the bridge section. It is analyzed that four of these tubes will be equipped with the medium-range SLBMs ‘Pukguksong-3, -4, and -5,’ and the remaining six will carry the KN-23 (Iskander) upgraded mini SLBMs, respectively.

Before the operational deployment of the ‘Kim Gun-ok Hero’ submarine built last September

However, photos released by North Korean state media show that the test-fired missile surfaced at an oblique angle above the water. This is not a cold launch method from a VLS. Cold launch involves initially pushing the missile body out with gas or other means like a projectile to a certain altitude, then igniting the missile in the air. North Korea also did not mention the name of the submarine or the launch platform from which the missile was fired.

Previously, in March last year, North Korea fired a submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) from the 2,000-ton ‘8.24 Hero’ submarine near Sinpo, which has only one vertical launch tube. According to North Korean announcements at the time, it was analyzed as the first submarine launch of the 1,500 km-range long-range strategic cruise missile ‘Hwacha-1,’ capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads. However, this submarine is unsuitable for operational use due to the small number of launch tubes and is considered for testing purposes only.

Some experts also assess that having six or more VLS tubes on a 3,000-ton submarine is structurally challenging. It is argued that a 3,000-ton submarine cannot withstand the pressure from SLBMs launched from 10 tubes. The Republic of Korea Navy’s Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarine is also 3,000 tons but has six launch tubes. The U.S. Ohio-class strategic nuclear submarines (SSBN, 18,750 tons), which are six times larger than North Korean submarines, have about 20 to 24 launch tubes. Moreover, launching from the ‘Kim Gun-ok Hero’ submarine, which was launched only four months ago, faces many time constraints.

Military satellites are essential for deploying cruise missile capabilities

Even if strategic cruise missiles are developed, their effectiveness remains uncertain. To strike moving targets with strategic cruise missiles, military reconnaissance satellites capable of real-time target tracking are essential. However, the performance of North Korea’s military reconnaissance satellite ‘Malligyong-1,’ launched last November, has not been verified. North Korea has not yet released satellite images, making future technical verification difficult.

There are also doubts about whether North Korea will pursue the development of nuclear-powered submarines. North Korea included nuclear-powered submarines as one of the five core tasks to strengthen defense capabilities at the 8th Party Congress in January 2021. However, in March last year, Chairman Kim Jong Un stated, "If nuclear weapons are equipped (carried), that itself is a nuclear submarine," interpreting it differently from the conventional understanding of nuclear-powered submarines that use atomic energy as fuel.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, “Launching cruise missiles in the West Sea and East Sea was to secure reliability and simultaneously demonstrate imminent operational deployment. Yesterday’s launch appears to have been from a barge, but once the sea trial evaluation of the new submarine is completed, tests of onboard launches are expected to follow.”