[22nd General Election Poll] Jeonnam Naju·Hwasun, Fierce Return Match Between Former and Incumbent Lawmakers

Son Geum-ju 32.1%, Shin Jeong-hoon 28.4%, Gu Chung-gon 21.5%... 1st and 2nd Within Margin of Error

In the Naju·Hwasun electoral district, which is drawing attention as a return match between Representative Shin Jeong-hoon, who is seeking a third term in the 22nd National Assembly election to be held on April 10, and former Representative Son Geum-ju, who aims to avenge his defeat in the 21st election, the two are engaged in a fierce competition. Another candidate is closely trailing behind them.

From the left in the photo: Former Hwasun County Governor Gu Chung-gon, Former National Assembly Member Son Geum-ju, National Assembly Member Shin Jeong-hoon (in alphabetical order).

According to a public opinion poll conducted on January 23 by Daily Research Co., Ltd., a specialized polling agency, commissioned by the Asia Economy Honam Reporting Headquarters, the support rates for the National Assembly members in the Naju·Hwasun electoral district were as follows: former Representative Son Geum-ju at 32.1%, Representative Shin Jeong-hoon at 28.4%, and former Hwasun County Governor Koo Choong-gon at 21.5%. The gap between first and second place is 3.7 percentage points, which is within the margin of error, while the gap between second and third place is 6.9 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error.

Following them were former Senior Administrative Officer of the Blue House National Situation Room Choi Yong-seon at 4.1%, former Jeonnam Provincial Assembly member Ahn Ju-yong at 2.1%, and former Naju City Council Chairman Kim Jong-woon at 1.6%. Those who were unsure accounted for 5.4%, those with no preferred candidate 3.1%, and other candidates 1.7%.

Former Representative Son had the highest support in Naju at 38.2%, but relatively lower support in Hwasun at 21%. Representative Shin showed balanced support with 29.1% in Naju and 26.9% in Hwasun. Former Hwasun County Governor Koo had 12.2% support in Naju and 38.4% in Hwasun.

When asked which of the four candidates preparing for the Democratic Party primary was the most suitable, former Representative Son received 34%, Representative Shin 30.7%, former County Governor Koo 22.6%, and former Blue House administrative officer Choi 5.4%.

Among Democratic Party supporters only, the rankings between first and second place reversed, with Representative Shin at 36.1%, former Representative Son at 31.4%, former County Governor Koo at 23%, and former Blue House administrative officer Choi at 5.2%.

The most important criteria when choosing a candidate in this general election were policy and pledges at 32.1%, morality and integrity at 23.8%, and experience and ability at 21.3%, in that order.

When asked which party they would vote for if the general election were held tomorrow, 74.7% chose the Democratic Party, 6% the Lee Nak-yeon new party, 4.2% the People Power Party, 4% the Lee Jun-seok new party, 3.6% the Progressive Party, and 2.6% the Justice Party.

This survey was conducted on January 23 by Daily Research Co., Ltd., commissioned by Asia Economy (Honam Reporting Headquarters), targeting 705 men and women aged 18 or older residing in the Naju City and Hwasun County electoral district of Jeollanam-do.

The survey method was wireless ARS telephone survey, with respondents selected 100% via virtual mobile phone numbers provided by telecommunications companies. The final response rate was 16.8%, and the sampling error was ±3.7 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Weighting was applied by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of December 2023 (cell weighting). For detailed survey outlines and results, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.